Special thanks to Doctor Vlad P.
Where do the foundations of the current geopolitical situation lie?
The short answer is, as always, the Cold War. Some may argue that it’s over, while some say it never stopped, but in any case, the old Cold War is the cause of the current situation. Up until the end of the 1970s, we might say that the West was on the defensive. Soviet power seemed stable and unquestionable, while Americans were trying to hold the detente together, while in the same time, they were working on the new strategy of the so-called “containment” of the USSR.
This strategy primarily involved the help of Gulf monarchies and Saudi Arabia in radicalizing Muslim population in Central Asia through the spread of Wahhabism, an extremely radical version of Islam with roots going back as far as the mid-18th century.
For around 200 years, it remained an obscure local cult, but as the countries of Arabian Peninsula became strategically important, primarily because of the discovery of oil and consequently being the crucial part of the petrodollar-based financial system, these countries found themselves wielding previously unimaginable amounts of power and influence.
Unfortunately, this influence has proven to be quite malignant. Back to Central Asia. During the 1970s, the West and the Saudis used the ever-present instability in Afghanistan to further their goal of destabilizing the “soft southern underbelly” of the USSR. Afghanistan was a perfect base of operations for this, given the fact that radicalizing Muslims directly in the Soviet Union was out of the question, primarily because the atheistic USSR banned any form of religious schools resembling those which preached Wahhabism. The plan escalated quickly as the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan dragged on during the better part of the ’80s, which is often dubbed as one of the reasons for the breakup of the USSR, to which falling oil prices contributed greatly, which again was the result of the petrodollar financial system.
Although USSR is no more, Central Asia was never out of Washington’s sights. Its geostrategic value was never lost. On the contrary. Russian dominance over the region is still unrivaled, but it’s nowhere near to what it was during the Soviet Era. And unlike during the ’80s, Afghanistan is under American occupation. Apart from jeopardizing Russia’s southern flank, Afghanistan would also be an operating base for destabilizing Iran or even invading the country. Importance of this region is not only geopolitical but economic as well. Given the fact that war has been practically incessant in Afghanistan, it’s a perfect excuse for the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) to continue sucking in ridiculous amounts of money out of taxpayers pockets.
This is when we get to Venezuela. For more than 2 decades, Venezuela has been under a virtual attack because it refused to gift its vast natural resources to foreign powers. Venezuela’s already precarious position is further worsened by the fact that it’s home to the largest proven oil reserves in the world and that it’s close to America itself, which is still claiming Monroe Doctrine as being the primary framework of its Latin America diplomacy if we could even call it that way. America has already lost multiple proxy wars against Russia (Georgia in 2008, partially Ukraine in 2014, Syria in 2015) and Trump needs to prove he’s not a Russian puppet, something he has been accused of since the moment he proclaimed his candidacy for the POTUS.
Venezuela’s refusal to give its natural resources are jeopardizing the petrodollar financial system, while Trump desperately needs a win to prove he’s not a puppet. At the same time, strategists in Pentagon are claiming that taking Venezuela would be a walk in the park. They prefer ousting Maduro first, but war too sits quite well with the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC). Venezuela’s population is mostly based in coastal areas to the north, which is where all the oil reserves lie, too. If those areas are taken, the strategic part of the war would be over, limiting Venezuela’s control to the endless forested areas, which most of the country is comprised of and which are not considered strategically important.
This would result in a guerrilla war and would also secure another 15-20 years of live weapons testing. Which also means a fresh supply of countless billions to the MIC. And it’s practically at America’s doorstep. Given the logistical effort the US took in order to wage wars around the globe, Venezuela seems to be a perfect target. Still, things aren’t so simple. Keyword: Iran. Trump and the Deep State need a war, and although they have two options (Venezuela and Iran), at this point they can only afford one. It definitely seems as a geopolitical no-brainer to choose Venezuela as the next target, but America’s allies on the Arabian Peninsula along with Israel have been lobbying for an attack on Iran for decades now.
It suits Israel’s and Saudi’s Interests well, but America’s too. Unlike a victory over Venezuela, which would be more of a regional one, victory over Iran would have global implications. It would leave Syria without a very important ally and, more importantly, Iran under American jackboot would severely jeopardize Russia’s North Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and it would further give a base of operations against Central Asia, which opens up a plethora of possibilities for the final encirclement of Russia. Also, Americans believe this would show the Turks who’s the boss, getting them back to the “flock” and that it would block Syria completely, opening another opportunity of taking Syria and finally building natural gas infrastructure connecting the Persian Gulf with Europe, which would be the end of Russia’s supply of natural gas to Europe, which would likely severely damage Russia’s economy.
So, although a much bigger bite militarily, and a real logistical nightmare, Iran seems to be a perfect target too. It’s only a question of what course of action will America take. And the more important question, how will Russia (and probably China) respond?