Opinion: WHY THE COLLAPSE OF UKRAINE UNDER ZELENSKY IS INEVITABLE

By Alexander Zapolskis

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By Alexander ZapolskisApr 27, 2019 – Of course the loudest media theme of the current moment is the news about the signing by the President of the Russian Federation a decree on granting Russian citizenship to citizens of the LDNR under a simplified procedure. Given the complexity of the issue, a wave of all sorts of assumptions has already risen around it.

The result Ukraine will not like for sure. Moreover, the necessary legal basis for not having to particularly disguise itself as Russia is now there. It’s one thing to defend a certain abstract Russian world and quite another to your own official citizens. We do not recommend pushing very hard for a conflict.

In Ukraine, most commentators agree on the story of Moscow’s perfidious refusal to comply with the terms of the Minsk agreements. Their current president has appealed to the United States and the European Union demanding to immediately strengthen sanctions against Russia to repel aggression. His replacement, Zelensky, spoke more streamlined, but in fact in the same sense: Donbass is Ukraine! Russia allegedly with such a step recognized its responsibility as an “invader state”.

No less massively on the Internet are theories of all kinds. Allegedly, with this step, Moscow openly began preparations for the bringing of a Novorossia. There have been many reports “from secret sources in the LDNR” that Russian passports will first of all be handed out to officials and the military command of the republics to facilitate their evacuation to Russia “when everything starts.” This is indicated by the rule that the simplified procedure applies only to persons who have previously acquired citizenship of the Donetsk or Lugansk republics, which is not recognized by the authorities of Ukraine.

No matter how strange this may sound, however, it is the latest story that looks closest to the truth. Just like in the well-known joke: I did not win, but lost, and not by chance, but rather by choice. Neither of which, the surrender of Novorossia nor its pushing back into Ukraine, as well as the rejection of the Minsk agreements, is  even close. The situation is completely different.

For example, in Transcarpathia, the Ukrainians massively draw out Hungarian passports for themselves and, apart from the quiet grumbling of Kiev, the process does not cause any special reaction. On March 30, 2017, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban even met with Poroshenko to discuss a bilateral agreement on this issue. Moreover, the Court of Appeal of the Transcarpathian region allowed the citizens of the country to cross the border to leave on foreign passports, and to return on Ukrainian. Since October 2016, Poland behaves in a very similar way .

So the fact of introducing a special procedure for granting Russian passports is not associated with any aggression. However, one should not think that in the current conditions such an action of the head of the Russian state can be accomplished just like that, without a reason. It has just a very serious and more than clear meaning.

No matter how we made fun of the choice of the Ukrainian people, nevertheless, they legally chose a new president for themselves. Yes, the vote was not so much for Zelensky than how much against Poroshenko. And the electorate showed total disappointment not only in Poroshenko, but also in the entire current political elite of Ukraine. Compared to it, even a professional showman seems to be definitely better.

But this medal has a downside. Every nation deserves its ruler – Socrates aptly said. This is clearly seen from an analysis of the promises of Zelensky, now considered his political program . It only streamlines the most frequently cited Ukrainian dreams of a miracle. Defeat corruption. To achieve universal justice and equality of all before the law. Solve the problem of Donbass.

If everything else can be left behind the scenes, then Donbass is now again becoming the value of the notorious Gordian knot. War requires action, and the new leader, by definition, must radically differ from its predecessor.

But at the same time, objectively speaking, the impasse has only two solutions. The first, by analogy with China, can be described as “one country – two systems”. Galicians should praise Bandera, and the Donetsk residents – those who drove them out through the forests. The depth of the fundamental incompatibility of such polar positions within a single state is self-evident.

Even more clear is the emptiness of Zelensky’s promises to find and punish those who “began the war.” For it is necessary to imprison all the current authorities of Ukraine, including not only Avakov, but also all local oligarchs, including Kolomoisky. And who will do it? Zelensky himself personally take up the Mauser?

However, more importantly more. The war broke out due to the radicalization of the principle “Ukraine is not Russia”, so it can be completed only after abandoning it. How to do it? Pay off everyone related to the “Right Sector”? So there are more than half a million in the country. To judge all those who fought in the ATO and now fighting in the EP? These, taking into account the rotations and the multitude of mobilization waves, one and a half times more passed through the army. To judge them for what, for the execution of state orders?

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I’m not talking about formally not serving, but the art of the Ukrainian Armed Forces actively providing volunteers. According to various estimates, the volunteer movement encompassed up to 4 million people. And it is completely incomprehensible how then to solve the situation with the current composition of the SBU and other state special services.

If you go according to the first option, then you will have to drag at least every third Ukrainian to the court (where you’ll get one, don’t ask). And then, if the war is recognized wrong – the Ukrainian state becomes obliged to compensate the everyone for its consequences.

You can not talk about the nationwide objection to the fashionable kneeling along the roads there today, but at least token moneys for repairing everything damaged from the bombing and artillery shelling. And this is at least a dozen annual budgets of the state. Given the current debts of the IMF, Ukrainians will definitely agree to live handy for a quarter of a century, do without medicine and other social guarantees, only to pay compensation to Novorossia? Seriously?

From this it turns out that Zelensky has no alternative. Totally. He has risen to the presidency on the crest of popular fantasies, and may even “break the system” for the fun of the crowd for some time, but he doesn’t have even a ghostly freedom of action on any key geopolitical issue.

Of the two available, the only way available for him, and the new president has already quite specifically outlined it. Donbass is Ukraine. And that’s it. A new guarantor intends to return it. It remains only to clarify – what exact way.

So that he, or the person who actually stood behind him, did not want to take the risk of “trying it simply”, the Russian president signed a decree on a simplified procedure for issuing Russian passports to LDNR citizens.

Russia does not intend to retreat anywhere and is not going to surrender. No matter how many people Russian passports will receive – 50 thousand, 500 thousand or a couple of millions. Neither the pace of the process, nor even the attempt to accuse Moscow of the alleged abandonment of the Minsk agreements plays a role. Moreover, there is not a single word in the passport text there. Whoever does not believe, can re-read them himself . Fortunately in the open source the documents are present.

With its present step, Moscow said – try to unleash a war and immediately will blow the North wind (this is a reference to ‘magical’, 4GW covert support from Russia in the forms of arms and maybe men, such a through Voentorg – J. Flores).

It will strongly blow. The result Ukraine will not like for sure. Moreover, the necessary legal basis for not having to particularly disguise itself as Russia is now there. It’s one thing to defend a certain abstract Russian world and quite another to your own official citizens. We do not recommend pushing very hard for a conflict.

Thus, the Kremlin showed the patron of the new president of Ukraine, the insurmountability of the current impasse and the non-invariance of the prospects for reformatting the state in other ways. Including, through the dissolution of the country in its current form. With all the consequences. And in order to get it better, we will hand out passports.

translated by and for FRN

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