Apr 30, 2019 – Venezuelan President pretender Juan Guaido is about to topple the structures of power in Venezuela, mustering an impressive insurgent and popular military force of …. fourteen men. Yes, surely it is absurd. But in the details of this ridiculous looking ‘attempt’ at phase n of the coup, so very much needs to be learned about the allegorical black magic of the Color Revolution. This is a wonderful opportunity to further publicize, for people who seek to obtain it, an understanding of how the U.S understands regime change, mass and social-psychology, power-elite dynamics. We can both learn and affirm the art and science of the Color Revolution, as known as a component of paradigm of 4th Generation Warfare, this specific tactic of hybrid warfare, within the general strategem of soft-power ‘regime change’ operations.
If we are to color these Color Revolutions – Green, Orange, Velvet, Tulip, Purple, Rose – then Venezuela’s is black. Black, as the magic which has backfired on the practitioners, rendering them diseased, disfigured, and defeated. The U.S empire, in its phase of critical decline and absolute collapse, seeks to conjure phantoms, trickery, magic, spells, whisper campaigns, defamation, and sleight of hand. The failed Color Revolution on Venezuela, will so be known as the Black Revolution. Watching Guaido conjure imaginary forces in today’s video-address was like watching disgraced Christian televangelist Jim Bakker.
To be sure, the present ‘Military Coup’ in Venezuela is a fiction and because it is publicly known as such, it is therefore already a failure. It appears a particular network of U.S financed agents are working in over-drive to deliver some semblance of ‘regime change’ results in Venezuela. There are real budgets on the line here, and Guaido’s handlers are under real duress to show something, anything. Still, in the workings of these fourteen men standing strong with Guaido, the entire art and science of government subversion can be told.
And so hours ago, international headlines flashed a western-coordinated message in simulcast – ‘Guaido Pledges End of Maduro Era in Militaristic Video’ (the Guardian) , or ‘Attempted Coup Underway in Venezuela’ (CNN) – informing whatever viewers they still have that ‘big things are happening right now’ in Venezuela.
While these headlines certainly catch attention, and we are obliged to report them as breaking news for what they profess to be – the reality is that these are psychological operations that will have little effect on real power in Caracas.
The ‘presentism’ inherent in the nature of news and reporting, can often leave the audience in a perpetual state of short-term memory, and a feeling of ‘awaiting an exciting and new breaking event’. But stepping back and pausing to think, the entire charade exposes itself for what it is.
What it really was, what you really saw, is an exhausted and exhaustible Guaido stand with about fourteen individual men in uniforms purchasable anywhere. Now, there is a strong chance that these men are indeed military, and there is in fact a point here that we will elaborate further on in the below. Indeed, much of how all of these things operate on the larger scale are signified by these fourteen men.
En el marco de nuestra constitución. Y por el cese definitivo de la usurpación. https://t.co/3RD2bnQhxt
— Juan Guaidó (@jguaido) April 30, 2019
But to summarize what we are seeing now, even in western reporting, we find a confirmation that the first phase of the psychological operation was a failure – in this phase, we were to be convinced that Maduro was no longer president, that Guaido was already in. Months ago now, we were told it was only a matter of time, hours, perhaps days, until the transition of power was complete.
And then what happened? Nothing happened, because the sleight of hand, the magician’s illusion was exposed for what it is. This, incidentally, is what the U.S’ whole war on independent media is about, and their war ‘on’ the internet, ‘through’ the internet. If people do not really believe a transition of power is happening in Venezuela, then people do not behave that way.
This is a black magic whose spell has been broken.
If people do not behave as if the government is topping, then the behaviours commensurate with, and determinative of, of a toppling of government, do not occur. Consular offices around the world, of Venezuela, retain their titular authority. Investments and international obligations carry on with the actual-existing government in Caracas, headed by Maduro, and this is a huge part of it too.
This entire holographic reality the U.S has failed to create was constructed on this basic idea: if enough people believe it, power can actually be transferred to their designee.
There is a dictum that holds in both community organizing, mass mobilization, and insurgent and counter-insurgent psychology-in-action, of which this author has been both a practitioner and percipient witness. It is understood, as it was distilled in the writings by Gene Sharp and based in turn on the works of Saul Alinsky, that power is constantly in flux, is based upon perception and agreement, is redefined every-day, and can change hands very rapidly. Thinking people and skeptics in the west often misunderstand these as leftoid or traditionally, at least dogmatically, Marxian conceptions of power, because of the association with Alinsky, community organizing, labor unions and syndicates and the left. This is a massive error of immense proportions, and anyone professing such would be met by the ridicule it deserves. Rather, Marxian conceptions have power understood through the prism of class, in turn and in the final analysis determined by the productive forces and social relations – all together the mode of production.
But in the black magic, the artistic science of toppling governments by way of the Color Revolution, the ‘class struggle’ component is all but a demagogic illusion, and reinforced by confirmation bias and wish-fulfillment of the predisposed.
Rather, power – in the artistic black magic science of toppling governments – is understood already as an interlocking directorate of power-elites, whose interests are only mutual in a transitory and conditional sense. Therefore, to topple a government is the science and art of breaking-up inter-elite networks, and pitting an interlocking directorate against itself. It is to create a civil war among the elites. That is why in the ‘Color Revolution’ scenario it is so important if a diplomat, minister of economy, oligarch, or general declares for the rebellious side. These have very little to do with Marxian analysis of power and Marxian conceptions of revolution in the traditional, rudimentary, vulgar, or common sense of the understanding.
This basic idea of power as transitory and conditional holds a significant amount of truth, it is the reason why the information war – these psychological operations – are indeed so important. And here it is not Marx that we take from to understand power, but Baltasar Gracian, Niccolo Macchiaveli, and Xenophon of Athens.
From this bifurcation, we see clearly then why the declarations of the U.S media hologram lost its steam. The axiom that repetition of the lie becomes the truth holds in many cases, but not in the artistic science of the Color Revolution – here it only takes on dimensions of stagnation, fatigue, and the syndrome of ‘the boy who cried wolf‘. Rather than becoming more true, it is something that becomes less true every time the story needs to be claimed and re-framed again: Maduro lost power, but is still in power? Guaido has power, but still needs to seize it? Maduro has lost authority, and it is only merely the government, the military, the international community, and the people that falsely buttresses him up?
For to be ‘narratively’ consistent, Western media might have us read that Maduro’s coup is succeeding, for he has usurped the legitimate authority of Trump’s hallucination of ‘constitutional powers’ vested by the National Assembly into Guaido. But then that would be the wrong psychological-operation method to take as well – to say he is ‘succeeding in his coup’ is to say that he is succeeding, and the ‘mass psychology of the stampede’ then works in the direction of Maduro’s power.
And for all these contradictions, we understand why the U.S attempts at staging a coup in Venezuela have failed.
Really what the U.S keeps trying to do can be summarized as two-fold.
The first is that there is always the possibility that events will spiral out of control and the regime-change story will ‘stick’. It always seems unlikely, but has a chance of happening. It would be statistically erroneous to view it in static terms – rather, the more scenarios one can create, the chances increase.
There is always a roll of the dice and the random chance that some somewhat random event will take place, or a government agency or law enforcement officer will, at a very local level, be provoked and make a huge error in judgment. This is related to training on the government’s end, but also chance – and the more ‘situations’ the U.S can manifest, the more chances these can avalanche into something else. These create mayhem and chaos situations where a U.S planted hit-man, sniper, assassin, can also be operationalized to kill a few protesters.
The idea here is to stoke a frenzied psychological ‘stampede’ situation, where events cascade. The psychological war is one of mixed messages, and policy and military personnel do not want to find themselves on the wrong-end of history – not for major ideological or moral reasons per se – but because people have jobs to keep. And so who is really the government and who is not, matters at this level. An illusion, a spectacle can be created and government and military personnel can wind up very ‘confused’. Meanwhile, specifically paid agents are in essence actors, greatly exaggerating the ‘times have changed’ narrative, breathing life into the story that Maduro has lost legitimacy.
And if life is breathed into it, then it comes alive.
The second, far more probable outcome, but one which the government should also bend-over backwards to avoid, is to create a provocation. In the video which we ran on FRN earlier, we see Leopoldo López, an opposition politician, who is meant to be under house arrest. He is clearly not at home here, and breaking the terms of his house arrest. Lopez is not to be confused with the Venezuelan Defense Minister, Vladimir Lopez.
En el marco de nuestra constitución. Y por el cese definitivo de la usurpación. https://t.co/3RD2bnQhxt
— Juan Guaidó (@jguaido) April 30, 2019
The U.S has wrestled concessions, and agreements have been made, that Lopez and Guaido roam free, especially Lopez, as Guaido has not been formally charged yet. Do not make an error, this is significant of something. These men are not ‘nobodies’ in Venezuela, and some element of the government’s present legitimacy is predicated on its ‘overly nice’ treatment of these characters who, in any other entirely sovereign country, would be imprisoned as traitors and saboteurs. There are Venezuelan oligarch billionaires, like magnate Ricardo Fernández Barrueco, who in fact support the Bolivarian revolution of Chavez, and now Maduro, precisely because under such a social order their assets are protected, not jeopardized. And for every Barrueco, there is a Gustavo Cisneros or a Juan Carlos Escotet.
Barrueco cannot act as a voice of reason and pragmatism among Venezuela’s oligarchy if the Venezuelan social-democracy really turns Bolshevik. And that is true, both ways. So there is a small but overly powerful milieu in Venezuela, which the government and society must continue to work to marginalize, which only goes so far and believes themselves to be better off in this ‘balanced’ scenario where Lopez and Guaido roam free. But only if the likes of Lopez roam free.
His ‘house arrest’ status, like Guaido’s ‘roaming free’ status, are huge, massive signs and signals, canaries in the mine, weather vanes, test balloons. If Lopez can ‘buck’ house arrest, Venezuela’s privileged class, and their bleach-blonde ideological progeny of ‘wealth-aspirant’ ‘opposition’ supporters, normally who are or who desire to have middle-management positions in various private firms, are given a clear sign that things really aren’t so bad.
They stomp, cry, throw bizarre and histrionic public tantrums, and protest in an alternate reality, but so long as he is not arrested, any potential vacillation among the real oligarchs is kept to a very real minimum.
This milieu which works to overturn Venezuela’s social progress decry that they have fallen to ‘communism’, that Maduro like Chavez before him, are ‘dictators like Castro’. The irony of course is that much of the world responds, chuckling ‘if only they were!’ For if only they were in such a dictatorship, this ‘Miami-Carcacas’ axis crowd, for whom Marco Rubio is a hero, wouldn’t be free to roam around, trying to stoke social mayhem. They wouldn’t be afraid that their millions or billions might be someday seized, they would already have been seized.
Nevertheless, Lopez is openly trolling the government, to seize and arrest him, to create a situation, a real scenario. Of course he is incredibly brave, or incredibly stupid for, as we have seen with the murder of the Russian opposition ‘figurine’, Boris Nemtsov, once their utility is expended, they are worth more dead as martyrs than alive as possible successors to power.
Venezuela is not the dictatorship its ardent opponents claim it is, and their very real freedom to profess this untruth can ironically be used to convincingly create the simulacrum that it is indeed the case.
Nevertheless in all of this you do have a concrete story, and one that is indeed a telling case. Perhaps these fourteen men really are military, for indeed even in the failed military coup of 2002, in a world where the U.S was much more powerful and the information war also was on its side, Venezuela succeeded in telling a story that was alternate to the actual reality.
In reality, Venezuela’s military intelligence worked diligently to infiltrate the coup generals – contrary to popular mythology, Chavez was not arrested by generals against him, but taken into safety by generals who supported him, posing as coup generals. The other coup generals were fooled, conned, the coup was reversed from the inside – a coup within the coup.
He was taken away to safety, not to arrest. Palacio de Miraflores after all is only a building, and real functions of government simply continued on as they always do in reality – with those who have those powers and relationships.
And so these fourteen men standing with Lopez and Guaido, they are telling of something. But here is the trick:
The U.S knows that a direct militarily, an intervention into Venezuela would be a disaster. The desire now is not to create a failed state, for it does not border Iran or Russia – rather, they border a series of now-important U.S client states, and furthermore, in the American hemisphere.
It is always therefore best to take a government out through a coup, and to stage a coup, you need coup-supporting generals in the military. And so this trick works to Venezuela’s military intelligence advantage, for as long as the U.S knows that it desires a coup, and everyone knows that a coup is desirable, then all sorts of resources are put into staging a coup. And the U.S therefore is susceptible to imagine coup supporters and allies where there are none. It becomes a massive vacuum of information, resources, and misplaced beliefs over what is possible and impossible.
So among these fourteen men standing with Guaido and Lopez, it is truly amazing that they are not arrested moments, hours, or days later. But on second thought, it is anything but amazing. If and when Guaido is arrested, it will most probably be done by those fourteen men.