BRASILIA – Commenting on the possible participation in a military invasion in Venezuela, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro stated that, if it occurs, he will consult Congress, but will make the decision personally. Analysts have estimated what consequences a Brazilian invasion could have.
“Let’s suppose there is a military invasion there [Venezuela], the decision will be mine, but I will listen to the National Defense Council, and then the Brazilian Congress, to take the de facto decision on the issue there,” said Bolsonaro in an interview with Rádio Jovem Pan.
The president also said that a possible conflict in Venezuela would probably involve guerrilla warfare and that this situation could prolong the conflict.
According to international relations expert and former diplomat Nikolai Platoshkin, if Brasilia were to decide to military invade Venezuela, this could cause an internal crisis in Brazil. He stressed that in the country there are still demonstrations in support of former President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, who is currently in prison and who had good relations with former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.
“Any Bolsonaro military adventure against Venezuela would lead to an internal political crisis. Millions of people, supporters of socialism, would go to the streets and, as I believe, would disrupt this intervention,” Platoshkin told Russian Radio Sputnik .
The expert reports that Bolsonaro made this statement with a clear understanding that Congress would never approve a military invasion in Venezuela. “Then he would say, ‘My friend, everything is ready, but there are certain circumstances,'” Platoshkin said.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, the first deputy chairman of the Federation Council’s International Affairs Committee, also believes that Bolsonaro’s statement is nothing more than mere words because any military intervention could lead to large-scale civil war.
The Russian senator stressed that the time had come to discuss the problem of external military intervention within the framework of the UN Security Council.
As for Russia’s stance, Dzhabarov underlines that any conflicts must be resolved at the negotiating table, while the use of force could lead to unpredictable consequences.
On January 21, mass protests erupted in Venezuela against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly after he took office for the second term.
On January 23, the country’s opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, proclaimed himself acting president, having been supported by Brazil, the United States and several other countries. Maduro received the support of such countries as Russia, Mexico, China, Turkey, Indonesia and others.