Poroshenko’s Defeat All But Certain – Zelensky overtakes incumbent: so what’s interesting about the new opinion poll?

About 73% of Ukrainians claim they will absolutely vote in upcoming elections

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The famous actor  Vladimir Zelensky who is best known for having played the role of ‘Ukrainian President’ on a popular TV show in the beleaguered country, is still the undisputed leader in the ranking among presidential candidates in Ukraine. According to a study by the Socis Center for Social and Marketing Research, 20.7% of respondents are ready to vote for Zelensky. We are talking about people who, by mid-February, had already decided that they would necessarily vote, as well as those who still find it difficult to say whether they would vote or not – but already know who they would vote for.

Elections are scheduled for the end of March.

According to this poll, Petro Poroshenko takes second place: he has 13.2%. 11.0% of respondents are ready to vote for Yulia Tymoshenko. Previous polls showed Tymoshenko ahead of Poroshenko, but in all polls it is  Zelensky who polls strongest.

6.5% of respondents are ready to vote for Yuriy Boyko, 5.8% and 3.5% for Anatoly Gritsenko and Oleg Lyashko respectively.

At the same time, about 24% of voters still do not know for whom they will vote.

 

If we take as a basis only those who will necessarily vote and at the same time decide on their choice, then the results of the voting would look like this:

  • Zelensky – 27.7%
  • Poroshenko – 19.6%
  • Tymoshenko – 14.8%
  • Boyko – 9.6%,
  • Gritsenko – 8.2%,
  • Lyashko – 4.8%.

In their responses, the population shows a rather active position which expresses their will. About 73% of Ukrainians claim to necessarily vote in the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine on March 31. 19% of respondents fluctuate. Only about 8% firmly stated that they would not vote.

It is noteworthy that during the survey, respondents were also asked to answer the question: “Tell me, which of the following candidates, in your opinion, will win?” The most likely winner was Poroshenko (23.9%). Zelensky’s victory is predicted by 19.3% of respondents, and Tymoshenko – by 13.2%.

This speaks to the public’s perception of corruption in the electoral process. This reflects that among Zelensky’s support base are those suspicious that Poroshenko will ultimately win by other means.

The respondents reluctantly believe in the victory of the other candidates: none of the candidates receives indicators above 3%. And about a quarter of respondents (24%) have not yet been able to determine who exactly will become the next president of Ukraine.

According to a previous study by the Socis Center for Social and Marketing Research , Zelensky would get the support of 24.7% of the population among those who vote (“I’m sure to vote + it’s hard to say whether I will vote or not”) and make their choice. 19.2% of respondents were ready to give their votes for Poroshenko, and 15.9% of those polled for Tymoshenko.

Recall  is Zelensky trusted twice as much as Poroshenko. According to the Rating, 24.7% of voters are ready to vote for Zelensky in the upcoming presidential elections in 2019.
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