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WASHINGTON – To develop a response to the new Russian missiles, the United States could need ten years or more, says Michael Ellomman, director of the nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear policy program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
In particular, the expert commented on the US exit from the INF Treaty and the possible development of relations between NATO and Russia.
“In the long run, if Russian-American relations continue to decline and become openly hostile, such as at the height of the Cold War, the United States could launch programs designed to respond to the Russian threat against Europe or against US territory,” said the specialist.
However, in his view, “this will require a number of technological advances in anti-missile defense that will be unlikely in the next 10 years or more.”
As for the short or medium term, Ellerman sees no reason for Washington to change its anti-missile defense line in Europe, which it said was not and is not directed against Russian strategic missiles, including the 9M729 missile, which is why the United States announced their withdrawal from the INF Treaty.
According to Elleman, the United States is unlikely to put missiles in Europe in the current situation.
“I do not think NATO wants to accept these missiles, but if relations between the US, NATO and Russia continue to deteriorate, the intention not to develop and deploy short range ground missiles in Europe can change drastically,” said the specialist.
In his words, in the event of non-renewal of the INF Treaty, arms control will decline.
“We are already seeing these trends in American politics. There are few statesmen in Congress and the executive branch with professional knowledge in the field of arms control, who value predictability and see the need for stockpile limitations,” said the analyst.
At the same time, he believes it is difficult to answer the question whether the US exit from the INF Treaty could lead to an arms race.
“It’s still unclear. Much depends on the direction in which US-Russia relations will develop and the technologies that are available,” Elleman concluded.