Lyubov Stepushova in Pravda.ru
Kiev needs a small but victorious war in the Azov
The Ukrainian agenda has left the world media, which means that this topic does not interest the Western establishment. However, this does not suit Kiev and will not under any foreseeable authority, so a small but victorious war with Russia is needed.
The West is tired of Kiev’s ambitions
The consolidated West today has too many of its own problems — i.e, Brexit, the struggle for power in the USA, migration, the situation in Afghanistan, Venezuela, its own trade wars — to be searching for “Russian aggression” in Ukraine, especially since it is not there.
This is evidenced by the recent statement by the head of the OSCE Special Monitoring Commission in Donbass in the UN Security Council. In addition, there is no goal to make Ukraine a showcase of the “Eastern Partnership.” For this there is Poland, and there is no money for it – the US debts reach $ 22 trillion.
The West has also understood that Kiev would not fulfill the Minsk agreements and even Washington is not in charge here, because these agreements destroy the basis of Bandera nationalism. However, it is important for Washington that Ukraine never gets closer to Russia, and nobody cares how this is achieved. The Minsk Agreements are nevertheless originally a European choice, and the Americans are already satisfied with everything: the Slavic Orthodox core is fragmented, Ukraine’s debt enslavement is engaged via the IMF, in order to buy land and good assets for a pittance.
Bandera nationalism requires war with Russia
But Kiev is not satisfied with the indifference of the “world community;” its national idea is hatred of Russia, and it has to be nourished. We need small ones, but victories, and naturally, such things will not work out on our own, it would be necessary to exacerbate the situation somewhere for the West to help.
The question is where? The most recent thing Kiev sees as realizable is to aggravate the conflict in the Sea of Azov. Hence the demands of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko at the UN to return the Ukrainian sailors arrested in the Kerch Strait, hence the constant exercises in the Sea of Azov, and the rhetorical threats about attempts to break through the Kerch Strait, confirmed by the news that a Ukrainian group of warships left the port of Odessa on February 21 consisting of two armored boats “Gyurza” and the assault assault boat “Centaur.”
“It’s important for us here that we once again confirm that there is Russian aggression, and it is expanding,” said political analyst Vadim Karasev on the TV channel 112. “The conflict in the Donbas is now the southern Donbass, and Azov, and the Azov Sea region, and the Crimea. That is, it has traversed along the meridian down to the south. From Lugansk the whole conflict zone has moved from the land to the sea. Why is this important? First, to show there is aggression, and second, to obtain financial and military resources for the construction of the Ukrainian Navy,” said Karasev.
Plan “B” for the Azov Sea in action
That is, Kiev wants to “kill two birds with one shot:” bring back the Ukrainian agenda, and have them “give money.” Former candidate for mayor of Odessa Vyacheslav Azarov does not rule out that a possible campaign to the shores of the Crimea is Poroshenko’s “Plan B.” Poroshenko found his trip to the UN unsuccessful, where a meeting initiated by Ukraine on the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the Russian aggression took place.
In turn, in the Russian telegram channel “SMI_li” citing anonymous sources, wrote that the Ukrainian military vessels are headed in the direction of the Kerch Strait.
The Ukrainian authorities are preparing the passage of warships through the Kerch Strait, which will be watched by foreign military, said the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Pavel Klimkin, in an interview with Tsenzor.NET, published February 21.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also warned about this. “Poroshenko and his team do not want a settlement, but only wish to force and exacerbate the situation. Now they are preparing another “breakthrough,” also in violation of the rules for the passage of this difficult water area,” said Lavrov. It is possible that Plan B was agreed with the Americans, since the USS Donald Cook, a US missile destroyer with Tomahawks on board, has entered the Black Sea, and reached Odessa on February 20. The ship will take part in joint exercises with the ships of NATO countries. The grouping of NATO ships can operate on the borders of Russia on a permanent basis by rotating the ships in order not to violate the Montreux Convention. Ukrainian media are trumpeting that the destroyer is designed to support precisely the breakthrough at the Kerch Strait.
Collision is inevitable, what will it lead to?
And there is more. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine announced that it was preparing to terminate an agreement with Russia on the use of the Sea of Azov and a corresponding request was sent to the International Arbitration Court. The Russian-Ukrainian agreement, in which the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait were called inland waters of the two countries, was concluded in 2003. The Ukrainian side believes that Russia is not keeping its side.
But breaking the contract would not only untie Russia’s hands with respect to all claims of Ukraine to establish its own rules of navigation in the gulf, but would also significantly aggravate the situation in the region — in the south of Donbass, and would bring serious economic consequences for the major cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk. “So far these two ports provided approximately 5% of Ukraine’s foreign trade. Ukraine has a decaying alternative transport infrastructure for redirecting trade flows that pass through the sea ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk,” the Glavred newspaper points out. It can also lead to a significant reduction or even reduction in economic growth in Ukraine in 2019 and beyond.
However, for Kiev it is important not for the economy and the welfare of citizens, but for a political confrontation with Russia.