By George Ades – Aside from the obvious, short term reason for creating the provocation in the Kerch Strait, that of declaring Martial Law and thus delaying his inevitable political demise, Poroshenko may in fact be leading his country and people into a well planned trap that will serve the interests of the US-led West, but not those of Ukraine.
Crimea, is lost to the west and nothing short of a major conflict with Russia will change that. The war in the Donbas region against the Russian speakers there is in full swing, fueled with a constant supply of NATO weapons and encouragement from Western political circles.
Much as they would want to, the Western military planners cannot entice Moscow to openly intervene in southeastern Ukraine and although I would be very disappointed to hear that no military assistance is afforded those people defending their families and homes against the US installed Nazi puppet regime in Kiev, Putin and his team are careful not to cross what they perceive as a “red line.” No action that will constitute an invasion, although that term has been used [unconvincing] more than once by the Kiev crowd and their western sponsors.
The possible risk faced by Kiev in recklessly provoking Moscow, is that at some point Putin will have had enough of that pipsqueak and may decide to scratch that itch and advance to “liberate” all the Ukrainian regions that are inhabited in their majority by ethnic Russians.
Despite all the assurances Poroshenko today receives from NATO, no official American or European troops will get involved in such a conflict, risking a de facto war with Russia in an area where that country is at its most powerful. Any incursion by Russian troops into South and southeastern Ukraine, will be brief & effective and certainly well planned.
The US will get all the mileage possible from such an action, both on political and economic levels, Russia will be condemned for “aggressive expansionist policies” and will be sanctioned…… even more; but……..no US/NATO military involvement is on the cards. Instead, Ukraine (whatever is left of that country’s territory) will, expeditiously become a member of NATO, not for the strength of its military, but for its territory that will be turned into another vanguard position and buffer zone to protect those members of NATO that really matter.
Poroshenko will end up in the trash can of history, along with Hillary and the Ukrainians will lament their lost country, both East and west.