Ishchenko: UKRAINE’S OPPOSITION PLANNING NEXT MAIDAN

By Rostislav Ishchenko

0 3,094
Published on: Nov 20, 2018 @ 17:01 –By Rostislav Ishchenko – In Ukraine, over twenty cities remained without heat supply. Mostly relatively small, up to one hundred thousand inhabitants, but also six hundred thousand in Krivoy Rog, and in the capital, in Kiev, separate houses, and even whole neighborhoods are left without heat.
.

- Advertisement -

The reaction of the population was followed by wonderfully harmonious, organized action. The people blocked a major thoroughfare in Kiev for half a day, blocked roads in Smela and other subdivisions, burned tires in Krivoy Rog, and then stormed “Krivorozhgaz” and independently allowed gas into the boiler rooms [by illegally breaking the seals – ed].It is characteristic that problems arose mainly in those places where the local government is controlled by the opposition. The standard situation is that the local authorities spend money on anything, even writing out bonuses to themselves, but not to pay the debt to gas producers. This was despite the fact that the debt was restructured, that it was far from mad money to pay, and that there was a negotiation mechanism with which it was possible to agree on a deferment, a transfer or a reduction in payment, if suddenly someone could not pay.
.Moreover, since on the eve of the start of the presidential election campaign, Poroshenko is not interested in such cataclysms, there was another option to turn to the central government for support..

However, the heating crisis came out of the blue. This is despite the fact that the heating season been going on a month by that time. It seems that the opposition was waiting for the cold to organize anti-powder performances. In some cities, in addition to heating and hot water, cold water was also turned off. In at least one case, the electricity was turned off. That the population fully felt the crime of the regime.The speeches, as mentioned above, were strikingly synchronized, well organized and focused. “The insurgent people” everywhere quickly and effectively won local victories. Not everywhere they were connected with the immediate supply of gas to boiler rooms, but, apparently, it was not everywhere that such a task was set. It is clear that in a huge, by Ukrainian standards, Krivoy Rog government could not allow a heating collapse, and the intervention would have occurred immediately. Therefore, there the “rebels” did not wait, quickly captured Krivorozhgaz and connected the boilers themselves.

.

Please note that among the “spontaneously rebellious people”, quite by chance, the necessary specialists suddenly appeared.

.

In other cases, where the cities are smaller or we are talking about hotel districts or houses that were left without heating, the “rebels” were mostly limited to local and short-lived overlapping of secondary streets or roads. Since the scandal has taken an all-Ukrainian scale, it means that heat will be given quickly enough. But, given the degradation of management structures and the (traditional for Ukraine) slowness of the bureaucracy, it will take from several days to a week.

.

That is, the people will remember that the criminal regime froze him, they (the people) rebelled and won in a difficult struggle, and the authorities could not oppose them, because “the police are with the people”.

.

To the Interior Ministry is not too active with the suppression of protests, the organizers insured. Simultaneously with the “cold-sea” scandal, the theme of the guilt of the Minister of the Interior and the Prosecutor General in the death of activist Kateryna Gandzyuk , acid-drenched by her Maidan colleagues and then suddenly dead as a result of a thrombo-embolism in hospital on November 4th, began to unwind. That is, the security forces during the actions of “rebels against the cold” were busy with their problems, and they were not against speeches that did not take a threatening character.

What did the opposition get from this?

It was shown to the people, to all the people of Ukraine, and not only to those who were without heat, that the regime was ready to throw it into freezing and extinction and would not scratch it until it faced active street resistance. That the regime is afraid to use force, and street protests, including the seizure of state institutions, are easy and pleasant, with immediate results. That it is possible to block streets and highways, and nothing will happen for it.

The next time when the call is made to go out to fight for their rights (under any pretext), the streets will have a much more dense crowd, and the action may not be so harmless. It may not be secondary streets that are blocked, but strategic highways (including railways), as well as central streets of cities. And not some insignificant offices, but state administrations which can be taken by storm.In fact, the opposition held a successful rehearsal for the immediate paralysis of the life of the country, an artificial collapse of state administration, which is already breathing its last breath. At any moment, Poroshenko can find out that he has no control over anything except his office and, maybe, if he is lucky, the reception room. It is also important that mass demonstrations that engulfed a significant part of the country were conducted in such a way that the authorities did not receive a reason to use force or accuse the opposition of illegal actions.

When two political forces are preparing to solve the issue of power with the help of force and understand that it is not solved otherwise, it is very important who will formally be the instigator of the illegitimate scenario, both in the eyes of the world community and in the eyes of their own people. Opposition is always in a weaker position. The authorities have a priori the right to use force against illegal street actions, while the opposition in relation to the authorities gets the right to use force only if the authorities start a war with their own people. There is no other format for delegitimizing legal authority.

Consequently, even if the actions of a people go beyond the law, he himself must be sure that he doesn’t do anything wrong and that there is nothing for him to use force for. Then even the dispersal of the action with police batons will be perceived more acutely than otherwise shooting with a machine gun.

The opposition in Ukraine with “anti-cold-blooded” activity in November 2018 created the illusion of the legitimacy of its actions, forgotten since the last Maidan, among the people. Any next massive protest by the authorities will be much more difficult to suppress with the help of force. Police violence will be perceived as illegal and, being not sufficiently traumatic, will not stop, but, on the contrary, will stimulate the appearance on the streets of even more protesters.

Stopping the rise of protests can only be shockingly disproportionate and unexpected use of violence, when, for example, people expect to meet with police batons, and stumble upon machine guns. But such shocking violence, without being supplemented by a set of political stabilization measures, leads to the refusal of external partners to support the bloodstained regime, as well as to the transition to a dull, silent, opposition of almost the entire country. Ultimately, this leads to a rapid decomposition and fall of the regime.

As you can see, the opposition does not believe that Poroshenko will give power voluntarily, and uses the Maidan technology so that even Poroshenko’s readiness for large-scale bloodshed would not be able to help him to hold on.

At the same time, it is necessary to understand that the opposition is seriously risking things. Firstly, its Maidan is defective, as it unfolds without external support. Secondly, the Maidan technologies imply a slow gradual development of events, which means that Poroshenko gets time for preemptive actions against opposition leaders.

But in the middle of November, the opposition won this round, even if its only a training round or a dry run. Engaged in tomos (the controversy surrounding the Orthodox Church in Ukraine) Poroshenko did not even understand what was happening.

*
Translated by and for Fort Russ News

*

Subscribe to our newsletter
Sign up here to get the latest news, updates and special offers delivered directly to your inbox.

Get real time updates directly on you device, subscribe now.

Comments