By Sergey Mirkin – DONETSK, DPR – The incident that occurred in the Kerch Strait may have far-reaching consequences for Ukraine, the geopolitical situation, but especially the echo of this event may affect the situation in the Donbas.
Published on: Nov 30, 2018 @ 16:24
After all, what in essence happened is this: Maidan President Petro Poroshenko, realizing that he had almost no chance of winning the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine in March 2019, decided to arrange a provocation, after which he would be able to impose martial law, postpone the elections under the guise of emergency measures, clean up the information and political field of the country, strengthen population anti-Russian and anti-Donbass hysteria and on this wave to win the “presidential race” in the fall. But everything went wrong, as Petro Poroshenko counted. Ukrainian sailors refused to die for the selfish interests of “their” president. To provocative acts at the Kerch bridge gave Poroshenko the desired fruits, holy sacrifices were needed. Simply put, it was necessary for as many Ukrainian sailors as possible to die, and ideally if one of the boats or tugs were sunk.
Petro Poroshenko has not for the first time “sat on the throne” due to human death, all the current leaders of Ukraine came to power thanks to the promotion of a “brand” called the “Heavenly Hundred.” In fact, in early 2014, Euromaidan began to fade: the society began to tire of the Maidan. And then, like a wave of a magic wand, a sharp aggravation occurs on February 18. “Maydanovtsy” begin to use firearms against at both the “Berkut” and the protesters. Then, on February 20th, the “unknown” snipers start firing and accordingly protesting people are dying, protesters are shot and Maidan leaders announced the “Heavenly hundred”.
Then everything goes like clockwork, power is demonized, Viktor Yanukovych is proclaimed the “universal evil”, the protests are given fresh life. The result is a coup d’état occurs.
Poroshenko needed new sacrifices now, but would work only if they were later branded the “Heavenly Ship” or the “Sea’s Fifty” – it does not matter. The fact that the fate of the “lambs on the slaughter” was prepared for the Ukrainian sailors is evidenced by the fact that they were ordered not to respond to the radio messages of the Russian border guards and open fire in response, despite the fact that the Gyurz-class boat had 30 mm gun, twin 7.62 mm machine gun CT’s, and two grenade launchers. And now imagine if the Ukrainians used all their weapons against Russian ships? They would simply return fire until they were sunk. But this did not happen, people did not want to give their lives for the ambitions of insatiable Maidan politicians. And what should have been a tragedy turned into a farce: instead of dying heroically, the sailors and officers surrendered.
By this act the sailors, by surrendering, have first of all broken the entire political combination of Petro Poroshenko. Secondly, they destroyed the myth of the heroic defenders of the nation, which, since 2014, the Ukrainian media have imposed on the people of the country.
In general, Poroshenko put his Western patrons in a not very convenient situation. On the one hand, in the West, they are well aware that the attempt of three ships of the Ukrainian Navy to pass through the Kerch Strait without coordination with Russia is an obvious provocation. In addition, the EU is very afraid of the real war between Russia and Ukraine. The efforts made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande in February 2015, in anticipation of the signing of Minsk-2, were aimed precisely at preventing a real confrontation between the armies of the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
On the other hand, neither the EU, nor especially the United States can not support the Maidan government in Ukraine – for their political leaders this will mean the loss of their faces. No wonder the EU representative on foreign policy and security policy Federica Mogherini demanded that Russia release the ships and sailors. In addition, the fact that the Russians drove three Ukrainian ships “to the carpark” and arrested the officers and sailors demonstrates that the United States cannot protect its satellite.
And this is certainly not like the American hawks, because this situation demonstrates the weakness of their country. Kurt Walker, the special representative of the US State Department for Ukraine, called on the European Union to consider new sanctions against Russia in view of the worsening situation in the Kerch Strait. But apparently the West reacted to the Kerch incident in a different way than expected in Kiev. After that, utopian proposals began to come in from Ukraine. No wonder Poroshenko called on NATO to introduce ships into the Sea of Azov. And the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Igor Voronchenko said that Ukraine will ask Turkey to close the Bosphorus for Russian ships.
Of course, this speaks of panic among the Ukrainian leadership. However, it cannot be excluded that the West will nevertheless go for the introduction of new sanctions against Russia in order to demonstrate support for Ukraine. Thus, the official representative of the US State Department, Heather Neuert, said that the EU should question the construction of Nord Stream 2. For a resolution condemning Russia for actions in the Black Sea, the US Senate voted unanimously in support.
Nevertheless, the real consequences of the Kerch incident in international relations have already appeared. US President Donald Trump announced on his twitter that he’s cancelling the meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, because of the situation at Kerch. Apparently, he did it under the pressure of radical politicians, since at first he reacted to the events near the Kerch Bridge quite restrained.
True, given the expressiveness in the actions of the American leader, the meeting can still take place, although such a scenario is unlikely. Trump has a difficult domestic situation, and this is reflected in his actions in the field of geopolitics. You should also take seriously enough the words of some Ukrainian officials about the possible appearance of a military American base on Nezalezhnaya Square. Ukraine will not be able to join NATO in the near future, but it doesn’t stop it from concluding a bilateral agreement with the United States. And given the influence of hawk parties in both Ukraine and the United States, the appearance of American missiles somewhere near Kharkov or Kramatorsk does not seem so utopian.
However, now the citizens of Ukraine have suffered the most from Poroshenko’s adventure. The hryvnia depreciates due to the imposition of martial law in 10 regions, in regions that will be covered by this special regime for a month: people do not know what to expect, and now there’s a rush for store goods, cereals, canned goods, etc. In addition, even such political-minded pro-Maidan politicians like Vadim Karasev point out that the president and the parliament, in fact, divided people into two classes: those who have limited rights and those who have remained in full. That, to put it mildly, does not contribute to the unity of the nation, about which Poroshenko and his minions love to talk about.
At first glance, it may seem that Poroshenko suffered a complete defeat with the Kerch adventure.
Firstly, the “half-baked” martial law does not give him anything for 30 days, he cannot postpone the elections and “clear out” the Kiev media. Moreover, the parliament appointed the presidential election for March.
Secondly, the Ukrainian sailors who surrendered to captivity perfectly demonstrated the low morale of the Ukrainian army.
Thirdly, Poroshenko’s rating will certainly fall in the light of these events. But Petr Alekseevich had already demonstrated extraordinary political vitality, he knew how to extricate himself from various situations. The advantage for him now is that the martial law mechanism is launched, albeit in a truncated form, but then the special regime can be extended and extended. After all, there is already a precedent.
Most likely, the place of any new action for Petro Poroshenko will be the Donbass. Simulate the situation. Poroshenko in January-February 2019 will give the order to the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack Gorlovka, since the Ukrainian media have repeatedly written that this particular city is a priority goal for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But Gorlovka will not surrender the militia either: a big battle will begin with hundreds of dead. However, in the end, the Ukrainians will retreat.
After all, in fact, now Poroshenko does not need a victory, such as in 2014 or 2015. Now the president needs holy sacrifices and tangible threats from Russia. And he doesn’t care how many people will die – both military and civilians: for the sake of his goal to stay in power, he will destroy the entire Donbass. As a result of the counter-offensive, the people’s militia of the DPR will take control of a part of the territory that was formerly under Ukraine. After that, Poroshenko and his henchmen will begin to scream that Russia is coming, in light of this, he will require the consent of the deputies to impose martial law throughout Ukraine. And it will be difficult for the “people’s elected representatives” to refuse: after all, they agreed to apply a special regime in 10 regions of the country because of the three ships, so how would they refuse to impose martial law if serious battles take place? Parliament will be forced to take this step.
The West will also support the Maidan authorities, accusing Russia of everything. Poroshenko will get what he wants: moving the election date and dictatorial power, in addition, many victims at the front will give him the opportunity to raise the level of Russophobia and hysteria in Ukrainian society to a new level. After that, many politicians, journalists and bloggers will be arrested as agents of the Kremlin.
By launching a witch hunt, the president may even get rid of such serious political rivals as Anatoly Gritsenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, not to mention the former regional director Yuriy Boyko. It is also likely that, using a special legal regime, the guarantor of the constitution will squeeze the lucrative businesses of some oligarchs, whose deputies in parliament opposed the imposition of martial law for 60 days after the Kerch incident. Petro Poroshenko will clear the entire political field of the country and become a dictator.
Poroshenko came to power thanks to the victims of the Maidan, kept himself in power only thanks to Russophobia and the war in the Donbass, and now wants to preserve his throne, too, through human deaths … And with this he resembles a vampire who can live only by taking life from others, and like any ghoul will stop at nothing.
Translated by and for FRN, from EADaily