Published on: Sep 26, 2018 @ 22:26 – The following is an excellent walk-through of most all the elements at play; technical, spatial, theoretical, and geopolitical which by itself makes an excellent case of the hypothesis that it was France or the UK, the the view of ‘FB’, that was the party that pulled the trigger on that fateful day which saw the downing of the IL-20. UNZ review commenter ‘FB’ delivers his tour-de-force to arrive at the same position as FRN. It is slightly edited to be delivered straight, so most 1st person references to the debate the essay was written in response to ( Andrei the Saker and Martyanov) have had some phrasing slightly altered in rare occasion, but nothing substantive is missing or changed. FRN has at no time disputed the idea that Israel is ‘ultimately’ responsible for the downing of the Il-20 – ed, J.Flores
By ‘FB’ – I will ‘prove’ the ‘technical parameters’ that ALLOW THE S200 AND IL20 TO DEFY THE LAWS OF PHYSICS…
You see friends, Saker and especially Martyanov are full of crapola…
It is IMPOSSIBLE for an S200 which flies at 2.5 kilometers per second and would cover 100 km in just 40 seconds… to have hit an airplane that continued flying for another ~5 minutes after that close call with the flight of Israeli F16s…
Here is the infographic map released by the Russian MoD…
I have circled the close encounter point in yellow, with a yellow arrow pointing to it…that is the point where the F16s are supposed to have ‘hidden’ behind the radar reflection of the much bigger Ilyushin, and is the ONLYpoint at which this could possibly occur.
But the Ilyushin somehow manages to fly north for another 40 km…and even make a 90 degree east turn to come in to land at Hmeimim … a total flight time of around FIVE MINUTES.
BUT the S200 cannot fly for FIVE MINUTES, it is one of the fastest SAM rockets in the world, with a flight speed of 2.5 kilometers per second and would cover 100 kilometers in JUST 40 SECONDS.
Its maximum flight time is 150 SECONDS [2.5 MINUTES], IN WHICH TIME IT WOULD COVER ITS MAXIMUM DISTANCE OF 375 KM.
PLEASE TELL US HOW THIS IS POSSIBLE ANDREI…?
The specs of the turboprop IL20 are here.
It has a cruise speed of about ~600 km/hr, which is 10 km/minute…that’s at its cruise altitude of 8,000 meters, the MoD reported that the airplane was hit while flying at 5,000 m and on its descent to land at Hmeimim.
The MoD map clearly shows that the Ilyushin flew north for 40 km after that ‘close encounter’ with the F16s, and then made another right 90 degree turn back toward the Syria coast on its final descent back into Hmeimim.
Only after making that turn to final was the airplane hit.
So we have the airplane flying for FIVE MINUTES AFTER THAT SUPPOSED ‘RADAR MASKING’?
And the S200 which can cover 300 km in TWO MINUTES FLAT was doing what exactly for those missing THREE MINUTES?
It was maybe hovering in midair with its engine shut off…just waiting for the Ilyushin to slowly make its way to the point 40 km from the ‘radar masking’..before it decided to turn its engine back on and then come and hit the Ilyushin?
It is a matter of simple flight physics…the official story is IMPOSSIBLE.
If an s200 was even launched, it would have been from a range of probably 100 km, so it would have got to the Ilyushin in under a minute from that close encounter point.
The Ilyushin in that one minute would have been able to fly for maybe 10 km AT MOST, and would have come down where I have place the red arrow on the map.
Now I have seen many commenters here ridiculing Saker and Martyanov and that is completely warranted, Saker has no technical credentials whatsoever, in either physics or mathematics, he has made that abundantly clear over the course of hundreds of thousands of words of fluff.
Martyanov at least has a bona fide military education, but he also does not seem to think much about basic physics…he has some explaining to do here as to why he is pushing the ‘official’ story.
Folks, the fact of the matter is that ‘official’ information is often a blatant lie, we all know that, for those who have some relevant expertise in technical matters such as flight physics, it is not so easy to pull the wool over our eyes.
Remember when Turkey shot down that Russian Su24 ground attack jet in November 2015? There was a lot of discussion at the time as to the claim from the Turkish side about the Sukhoi flying through Turkish airspace for 17 seconds.
At the time PCR picked up on the debate, it revolved around the physical possibility of the Sukhoi flying that slow as to remain in Turkish airspace for so long, while covering a very short distance. The debate among the laypeople revolved around the aerodynamic ‘stall’ speed of the Sukhoi, i.e the minimum flying speed of the airplane.
I mentioned to PCR that the debate was nonsensical and explained a couple of pertinent basics of the flight physics involved, PCR encouraged me to expand that into an article, which he graciously published on his website.
We have a similar situation here, it is important to figure out what is and what is not physically possible.
Martyyanov especially, and of course Saker, are trying to tell us here that it was all a mistake as Putin said, that the ‘old’ S200 took down a state of the art electronic warfare airplane, with 15 very highly trained specialists on board, a HUGE LOSS.
Now I will say here that Putin has a good reason to take this action and not reveal what actually happened, and I will get to that in a minute.
But let us first consider some peripheral facts surrounding this entire incident. It is probable that the downed ‘Il20′ was in fact the latest, modernized iteration of this electronic intelligence aircraft, the Il22PP, which entered into service two years ago.
This is in keeping with the MoD’s stated practice of subjecting Russia’s latest and most sophisticated weapons systems to actual combat conditions in Syria, even Putin has said that much has been learned, both good and bad, in Syria, and that fixing these deficiencies is possible only due to the opportunity to deploy these systems in Syria.
Now if we assume that this was in fact that state of the art Il22PP [we are speculating here, but it is a solid assumption], then one must ask how careful the entire Russian contingent in Syria would be with such a valuable asset?
How is it possible that while this airplane is in the air that ‘Syrian’ air defense commanders are shooting willy-nilly at a chunk of airspace where at this very moment this extremely valuable aircraft is flying?
How stupid does this sound on its face?
Now we have already proved that the ‘radar masking’ story is physically impossible, due to the respective flight speeds of the Ilyushin turboprop and the S200 rocket.
That means that the S200 would have to have been launched when THERE WAS NO RADAR MASKING…ie the Ilyushin would have been very close to the point where it was shot down, which is 40 km away from the ‘close encounter’ site.
So now we are supposed to believe that the Syrian air defense crews, which somehow are acting independently while supposedly ‘integrated’ with the Russian air defense staff, that they have now targeted the Ilyushin WHILE IT IS FLYING ALONE WITH NOTHING NEARBY?
Again, I ask Martyanov here to explain this, especially in light of his dismissive comment to others objecting here, and citing his vast knowledge of radar systems.
How is it possible that this Ilyushin was targeted by an S200 when it was nowhere near those F16s at that moment, as the laws of physics require?
Of course I realize that he cannot rebut these questions in any way shape or form, he is caught again with his pants down.
Now let us consider some more relevant facts on that night. The Russian MoD stated clearly two additional piece of information.
1…the French frigate Auvergne was nearby the Ilyushin flight, as depicted on the map, and was in fact recorded firing missiles…
2…British jets were also in the air, with their transponders turned on…making it possible to track them even with civilian ATC radar.
Now we also know that a number of Russian ships were in that area at the time, and still are, and are in fact this entire week conducting live fire drills, more on that in a moment.
Those ships also have sophisticated radar and also infrared sensors which picked up the missile firing from the French ship.
Besides that we have the Beriev A50U AWACS aircraft in Syria..and it is safe to assume that they would have been in the air at the time of the Ilyushin flight.
At the same time, we also know that the US is flying the high altitude U2 spy plane out of Akrotiri.
So there is a lot of cat and mouse going on between NATO and Russia in the area, all the more reason to seriously doubt that a Syrian S200 would shoot down such an important flight as the Ilyushin; we notice also the flight path of the Ilyushin; it first flew a circuit over Idlib, then, instead of coming in to land directly at Hmeimim, the airplane continued out over the Med for about 40 km off the coast of Syria, well outside the Syrian territorial airspace. Why?
Perhaps because the Ilyushin might have been gathering data and perhaps engaging in electronic interference of those NATO ships and aircraft in the area?
We do not know, but if it was doing something like that, the flight would have had the utmost security attached to it, it would be unthinkable for a Syrian SAM to take a shot at that airplane.
So why the ruse on the part of Putin and the Russians?
Let’s first examine who had the opportunity to down that Ilyushin. The French ship firing missiles [what kind of missiles surface to air…?…the frigate is equipped with very capable Aster SAMs.
And also the British aircraft in the air at the time and flying out of Akrotiri, there are 9 Eurofighter Typhoons there, equipped with long range air to air AIM120 radar guided missiles, and also 10 Tornados equipped with shorter range heat seeking AIM9x.
Now since we know already that the only way an S200 could have shot down the Ilyushin would be if it fired practically intentionally at a high value friendly aircraft flying with no enemy aircraft nearby, it would seem at least as probable that the missile that brought down the Ilyushin could have been fired by a French ship or a British airplane.
[The Israeli jets could not have fired at the Ilyushin, since they were flying in the opposite direction at the time the airplane was hit…and it is impossible to aim a missile at a target behind your airplane.]
At this point, having made some logical physical observations and built up a situational picture of what and who was there at the time, it seems much more likely that the French or British brought down the Ilyushin, with the Israelis playing a supporting role to cause confusion and ‘fog of war’.
Now we examine another clue, this one coming just 24 hours after the Ilyushin was shot down…namely the massive Russian live fire naval exercises in the exact area of the Med where all the action took place…here is a look at the NOTAM published by the Cyprus Civil Aviation Authority.
I leave it to readers to make their own judgments.
Now let us consider the question of why Putin is not saying anything about possible British or French involvement in the shooting down of the valuable Ilyushin electronic warfare aircraft.
First, what purpose would it serve to now come out and accuse two NATO countries of an act of war?
Is not this kind of escalation exactly what NATO is looking to provoke in Syria?
Is Putin supposed to now declare war on NATO?
Or does it make more sense to blame Israel because Israel is the only party that can be proved to have been doing something illegal at the time, i.e bombing a sovereign country [an illegal act of aggression], and at the same time trampling all the protocol and agreements in place between Russia and Israel on the matter of Israeli operations against ‘Iranian’ forces in Syria?
We must remember here that Putin is interested in only one thing in Syria, that is to defeat the West’s regime change project, by defeating their terrorist proxies on the ground.
The West on the other hand is trying to do everything possible to provoke Russia into a military response, that would then lead to escalation and a possible shooting war.
Let us recall that the US twice launched cruise missile strikes against Syria in the last year, in the last attack back in April, the French and British also participated, no response came from Russia.
In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian jet, so how much of a stretch is it to think that Britain and France [together with Israel playing a supporting role] decided to shoot down the Russian spy plane?
Now Russia holding its fire makes perfect sense and is the smart thing to do, in spite of how bad these provocations look, for one thing Russia even turning on its air defense systems to shoot down US and NATO or Israeli missiles would give the opponent valuable information about how the Russian AD systems operate; this is very valuable tactical information.
Russia is better served not firing its systems unnecessarily, because when it does, the enemy will have little chance to calculate an escape.
As things stand now, no one can defend Israel’s actions on that night. Israel realizes that Russia is very angry and Israel must now alter its behavior as to bombing Syria. Russia will also take steps to increase the security of all Russian assets in Syria. There will not be a repeat performance of this carefully planned ambush of the Ilyushin.
As for retribution for whoever it was that pulled the trigger on that Ilyushin, I think Putin realizes that revenge is a dish best served cold, two can play the game of ‘accidents’ happening.
Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.
No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight a battle simply out of pique.
If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you are.
Anger may in time change to gladness; vexation may be succeeded by content.
But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into being; nor can the dead ever be brought back to life.
Hence the enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution. This is the way to keep a country at peace and an army intact.
Bottom line as to what really happened, the website strategic-culture.org, which is published in English by the Russian Academy of Social Sciences ran an editorial two days ago.
‘An investigation is underway to establish what exactly happened when the Ilyushin IL-20 reconnaissance plane was shot down on Monday night, as it was coming into land at the Russian airbase at Hmeimim in northwest Syria. The plane was lost some 20 kms off the Syrian coast, with all 15 service onboard killed.
There appears to have been an accidental shoot-down by Syrian air defenses using an outdated Soviet-made S-200 system.’
So this semi-official organ of Russian media is not so sure as our two resident ‘experts’ here, and any comments that question their ‘authority’ are unceremoniously dismissed.
FULL ANALYSIS: RUSSIAN DISINFO CAMPAIGN ‘BLAMES’ ISRAEL FOR IL-20 PLANE DOWNING, YET EXONERATES FRANCE