“US cannot stop Iran from exporting oil” – expert

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September 30, 2017 – Fort Russ News – Paul Antonopoulos

US sanctions on Iranian oil will fail without the support from Europe, China and Russia, sanctions expert Elizabeth Rosenberg has said.

“Grudging compliance does not look like robust, immediate information sharing to support the enforcement of sanctions,” said Rosenberg, the director of the energy economics and security program at the Center for New American Security and a former Treasury Department adviser on sanctions.

“In that world, sanctions are leaky, they’re not so strong and they will be revealed to Iran and the world to be not an effective tool of statecraft and there will be myriad opportunities for opportunistic business people — and confused business people — to find ways of continuing the business that they have in place,” Rosenberg said in an interview for S&P Global Platts’ Capitol Crude podcast that will air Oct. 2.

“In that world of really creative trading plays and companies and trading houses being domiciled in all kinds of jurisdictions precisely to avoid constraints on their activity … it will be incredibly difficult for the United States to be tough on enforcement without very willing and robust participation from Iran’s major oil consumers.”

“Of course companies make their own decisions and they may look at this high-risk scenario with expensive compliance costs if they wanted to try to find the narrow legal path or non-legal path to keep doing business with Iran,” she said. “Where there is compliance, it will be because countries internationally see value in preserving alliance even where they are unhappy about doing so.”

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