October 8, 2016 –
By Eduard Popov for Fort Russ – translated by J. Arnoldski –
On October 8th, Russia submitted an alternative draft resolution on Syria and the ceasefire to the UN Security Council. Earlier, a similar document was proposed by France and contained the demand to establish a no-fly zone and ceasefire.
The Russian project is based on the proposal of the UN’s special envoy on Syria, Staffan de Mistura, on the withdrawal of militants of the Jebat Al-Nusra terrorist organization from the eastern part of Aleppo and includes a call to implement the agreements on Syria reached on September 9th by Russia and the US. The “key priority” of the proposal is an immediate demarcation between forces of the “moderate opposition” and Jebat Al-Nusra militants.
Commentators have called the Russian diplomats’ resolution a “great stride” by Moscow even though Western countries will be compelled to veto it. This, in my opinion, is a small victory in the diplomatic and information war. But just how great are the possibilities that Russian diplomacy will be able to avoid the danger of an armed confrontation?
In all likelihood, the world is sinking towards a new Cuban Missile Crisis, but with one important difference. In 1962, at the head of the US stood a strong, responsible, and independent politician, John F. Kennedy. Now the country is headed by Barack Obama, who is not strong enough to control his own country’s military and is faced with strong opposition in Congress. Obama’s lack of militancy on the Syrian question only balanced out by his weakness. Obama hardly wants to go down in history as the president on whose watch a bloody war with a nuclear superpower, Russia, was started in a far away country for goals that are obscure to ordinary Americans.
But the alternative is not too enviable. Leaving everything as it is would allow the Syrian government army and Russia to finish off the “moderate” terrorists in Aleppo and win an important military, political, and image-building victory. American diplomacy has thus fallen into a trap by rejecting Russia’s peace proposals and any reasonable compromise.
Moscow is now demonstrating its decisive commitment, while Washington is showing its confusion. The whole world is following the confrontation between these two nuclear powers in Syria.
But the Americans can’t afford to lose. Otherwise, Pax Americana would begin to crumble like a house of cards, and not only in the Middle East. Russia’s army and navy are getting stronger while its diplomacy is running into all the more trouble. All the while, American hegemony is running out of time to preserve itself. Therefore, a military confrontation with Russia is almost inevitable. There are too many questions as to when and in what form will this clash take place, but it cannot be excluded that this will happen by the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. Or the war will be unleashed by the next US president, who will probably be Hillary Clinton.
It is unlikely that this will be a fully-fledged Third World War with the use of strategic nuclear arms, but more likely a local conflict (or a number of local conflicts) on the periphery of America’s zone of domination. Syria is probably the main candidate for the battlefield of a future war between the US and Russia and their allies.