August 11th, 2016 – Fort Russ News –
– R&U Vid – J. Flores with R. Quintanilla
The Russian Federal Security Service prevented terrorist attacks in the Crimea, planned by the General Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine.
A surprising public statement
In yesterday’s public statement, which took many by surprise, Russian President Putin has thrown down the gauntlet, and openly revealed Moscow’s actual assessment: The present government in Ukraine is illegitimate, was installed by a violent coup backed by the US, and Poroshenko is but a puppet of the US, who acts both blindly and foolishly in carrying out acts of terrorism against the Russian Federation.
Putin also went on to characterize the assassination attempt upon the life of Igor Plotnitsky, head of the Lugansk People’s Republic, as an act of terrorism. While it is consistent with Russia’s policy to date to consider any acts of violence against the Russian Federation directly as an illegal aggravation, this is the first time since 2014 that Putin has characterized violence against Novorossiyan leadership as a de facto ‘international’ event (as opposed to an internal police action within Ukraine), and of terrorism at that.
In light of all of this, Putin publicly expresses something almost approximating incredulity, that Poroshenko cannot create a rational policy on Russia. Is he simply envious of Putin’s successes in the many countries he deals with, including in the EU and the US, and their sanctions? Putin clarifies, of course, that it is because Poroshenko is but a puppet, entirely beholden to the US who placed him in power following a violent and illegal coup.
Ukraine and Russia both make military moves
Poroshenko now has Ukrainian troops at maximum alert over this Crimea incident on Russian borders, after being caught red handed with terrorist plans by the FSB. Immediately after this Putin has stated that the Minsk agreements, because of Ukrainian actions, are senseless and without value, and – apparently – there is no need to have any further talks.
This is a pressure point for Europe and Ukraine who immediately said it is ready (again?) to “talk” on the subject.
But the west might have turned the key to infuriate Russia, and make Putin’s Russia an open weapons supplier for Donbass, missiles and all. Ukrainian soldiers know – because everybody knows – that they would go to a certain death and no one believes their families are in any way happy about this. The military answer the Donbass gave to Ukraine with the militia surprised the world. That militia is now gone and instead they have an even better, professional army, declared to the public openly on Victory Day of 2015, supplied and supported by Russia. The results have been outstanding for the Donbass, winning every battle brought to them by Ukraine.
We also cannot overlook the fact that on August 8th, just days before this announcement, we reported the following:
Russia has just moved four divisions, nine brigades and 22 regiments along with two missile brigades with complexes “Iskander-M” into the south-west of the Russia, toward Ukraine, under Shoigu’s orders.
The Ukrainian army is preparing for a new offensive in the Donbass, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN Vitaly Churkin said recently. Typically, high-ranking officials don not give such warnings unless they are based on carefully gathered intelligence. Churkin is no exception.
Therefore, it is difficult not to conclude that these events are connected.
In this case, Russia is using a pretext – which in the grand scheme of things may even seem a bit small (two soldiers killed at a border shootout) – to take the initiative in the information/media war, and give themselves a publicly moral footing for something which, clearly, has been planned in response to Ukraine’s army build up, which even Churkin just publicly raised at the UN.
The situation on the ground
Ukraine’s society is desperate, broke, humiliated by the EU, with their necks under a very repressive government who has broken all of the few promises of wealth and greatness promised during the Maidan coup.
The Donbass is ready, alert, alive and ready to fight, as the few videos we get show a society that is under serious pressure from this war and Ukrainian terrorism, but still looking forward to a better future, and hope for a final victory against a derailed Ukraine, that today is totally erroneous in the plans they have for the Donbass region.
All the events over the last several weeks are likely to be all connected
It is much more common for Putin to speak softly, and carry a big stick. This Teddy Roosevelt approach to geostrategy has worked well for him, even if superficially pro-Russian detractors and critics would like him to engage in fare more chest beating than would be appropriate for a statesmen having this level of caliber and international respect.
This is why yesterday’s statement can only be interpreted as an ultimatum that will be followed by some no-doubt history making, and serious action.
It is important to take note that Putin makes this address following his bi-lateral talks with Serzh Sargsyan, President of Armenia. The context of this is a week of high-level and historical meetings with the leaders of Iran and Azerbaijan in Baku, followed by a serious agreement on ending sanctions and energy market development with Erdogan.
But what was discussed behind closed doors is something that may not be known for decades to come, if ever. It is likely, regardless of official statements and claims, that these meetings included the status of the CSTO, Armenia’s conflict with Azerbaijan, and Turkey’s relationship both with that and the Eurasian Union.
There have been any number of provocations, including the shelling of Russian support positions, by the Ukrainian Army, on Russian territory, which Putin could have seized as a pretext to make the sort of definitive and game-changing statement that he made today.
This leads us to conclude that this weeks meetings, the possibility of a shift in Turkey’s orientation (or at least triangulation), and the failures of the US’s side at Aleppo this past week, are all factors which contribute to the timing of this major statement.
The US also may have timed the provocation itself, perhaps to escalate tensions with Russia in the run-up to the elections. It would perhaps bode poorly for Trump if a heated or even hot exchange with Russia made Ukraine a major focus, and was the focus of media during an election where clearly Clinton is favored among imperialists and hawks.
This would certainly distract from the US failures to topple the government in Syria, and would also detract from Russia’s successes against terrorist groups there, which the US (despite their actual aims at arming said terrorists) has apparently ‘failed’ to make any traction against.
Russia is certainly in the position to take all of Ukraine, if this was their short-term or immediate goal. But the consequences would only result in a diplomatic disaster, and would nix whatever progress Russia has made in softening up Europe’s attitude to Russia and sanctions. Despite much news coverage on the subject, Russia has been able to make some significant progress in the economic sphere in relation to European banking, and has already struck deals with numerous EU states which, only technically, work around the existing sanctions.
For these reasons, we should expect a response from Russia that is aimed at making an example of the Ukrainian regime over its recent provocation, while at the same time doing so in a fashion which carries forward their long-term diplomatic aim of keeping at least a portion of European elites skeptical of (and hedging against) Trans-Atlantic designs on Russia.