July 6, 2016 –
By Eduard Popov for Fort Russ
Translated by J. Arnoldski
The meeting between State Secretary and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, G.B. Karasin, and his colleagues from the “Normandy Quartet”, i.e., German Ambassador Rüdiger von Fritsch and French Ambassador Jean-Maurice Ripert, was summoned to express concern Russia’s concerns over Ukraine’s actions. The official statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia said that Ukrainian troops are preparing a military operation and expressed hope that Russia’s German and French partners will be able to use their influence to pressure Kiev and prevent such a war scenario.
I believe that the purpose of this meeting was preventing an outbreak of war. The Ukrainian army will begin an offensive when such will be profitable for Kiev and Washington, and no official statements by Russian or European diplomats will stop it.
We can see the main purpose of the meeting from another angle, namely, gaining the upper hand in the informational and diplomatic standoff with Kiev and its curators and attracting Western diplomats and public opinion in foreign countries to Russia’s side. He who can prove that the opposing side started the aggression will informationally and diplomatically win the ongoing war.
Karasin is attempting to prevent a repetition of the situation from August 2008 when the “civilized” world blamed Russia for invading Georgia. It took years and numerous efforts for the world to tacitly accept the other point of view. Bearing this in mind, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia is preparing diplomacy and Western public opinion to accept the simple truth: “Ukraine violated Minsk 2 and started the war.” When this happens, Russian diplomats will be able to say: “We warned you, and now you have the opportunity to see our innocence and Ukraine’s perfidy.”
Ukrainian diplomats are pursuing the opposite aim of convincing the world that the Donbass republics and Russia are preparing aggression. Something similar took place in May-June 1941 when Soviet troops did not react to the numerous provocations of the Wehrmacht. Today, the UAF and its “volunteer battalions” are playing the role of the Wehrmacht. The numerous bombardments of the Donbass republics, with hundreds of artillery and mortar rounds fired per day, are intended to provoke the DPR and LPR armies to opt for a decisive counter-offensive, and thereby give Kiev the excuse to say that Donbass violated the Minsk Agreements.
Thus, today’s meeting was a diplomatic preparatory barrage before a possible war. If it proves successful, then Russia will no longer be blamed for outbreaks of hostilities or provocations on the territory of Donbass.