June 27, 2016 –
Yurasumy, PolitRussia –
Translated by J. Arnoldski
Leonid Kuchma created the modern Ukrainian political system which correct functions only when everything in the country depends on the president. All attempts by external players, and first and foremost the US, to modify or demolish it have ended in obvious failure. However, Americans are those people who find the right decisions only once they have done everything wrong. Post-Maidan Ukraine is no exception.
Immediately after Yanukovich’s overthrow, the Americans insisted that the system of government have a minimum of two poles, thereby hoping that the principle of “divide and conquer” would help them effectively pursue their policies in the country. But once again, they were wrong. If in 2014 everything still carried on relatively quietly, then in 2015 it all began. The sharp economic plummet compelled the major Ukrainian oligarchs to sharply increase their prices for “negotiability.” Little space was left for everyone, so by force of habit they began to push out and unseat their former partners from the overthrow of the Yanukovich regime.
Poroshenko understood that reaching agreements with everyone would be unrealistic, as there was simply not enough money in the country. So he started to squeeze out all of those who were not with him for sure. The first victim was the main Jew-Banderite of the country, Igor Kolomoysky. And he struck at him not once but twice, first by removing him from the post of governor of the Dnepropetrovsk region and taking Odessa out of his sphere of influence, and then by taking down his key political project “UKROP.” Of course, this was possible only thanks to the US, which supported Poroshenko.
On the other hand, according to the above-mentioned principle, they did not completely drown Benny. They say that it’s not just because Benny rendered them one valuable service on the market of processed petro-products, but that neither the GRU nor the FSB could find documented evidence against him, which would have been nice.
Next came the former project of Levochkin, later bought over by Kolomoysky, the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko. By way of the case against Moseychuk, these guys were shown what it means to be impudent when adopting the budget and not listening to Mr. Hetman Poroshenko.
But Poroshenko’s most important victory of 2015 was the complete desacralization of his main partner, Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He “soaked” him long and thoroughly with a sense of tact and balance. His approval rating was driven down the drain.
The well-organized work of controlled media yielded the result: after a year, the personal rating of Yatsenyuk fell to 2%, thus forcing the Popular Front to accept the terms of surrender and become what is really a mere autonomous entity within the Poroshenko Bloc. Squeezing out Yatsenyuk thereafter couldn’t be done because of the position of the US. However, in early 2016 Poroshenko nonetheless received an “ok” to demolish the “European prime minister.” In exchange, the US was promised a “deep understanding” on issues of privatization and in the sphere of their geopolitical interests…..
While Poroshenko removed his competitors, the former “junior partners” began to gain political weight and stare in contemplation at the Hetman’s regalia. The rules of survival forced them to find a guarantor as well.
My Lady and the Three Musketeers
Since the beginning of spring 2016, the guarantor’s demand has been bringing Sadovoy, Saakashvhili, Avakov, and Tymoshenko “down to a common denominator.”
1. Mr. Sadovoy
It all began with the history of the pre-elections in Krivy Rog. Someone misunderstood and framed somewhere there, which is not clear, but the fact remains that Sadovoy was forced to consciously kick out the impassable swindler Semenchenko, who still remained extreme. Afterwards, Sadovoy decided to fight back by publicly criticizing the domestic and foreign policy of the president and obtained the Gribovichi. Moreover, the scandal was fanned to a truly Ukrainian media scale with everyone exposing “their own.” Put as number one on the list of the Self-Reliance party, Anna Gopko suddenly decided to tell GPU investigators the whole truth about Sadovoy….
And then one of the most famous Lvov journalists, Ostap Drozdov, recalled how back in 2006 in local political circles Sadovoy was called “Andrey Cheque” because before making any kind of decision he always took a piece of pater and wrote down the percentage of rollback.
Sadovoy didn’t get the “hint.” And then a whole dump was exposed in Nikolaev where the mayor, by “sheer coincidence” is a member of the Self Reliance party. And then again in Lvov the same “coincidence” happened again.
The political future of Sodovoy, in the apt expression of one Ukrainian political survivor, was “multiplied by zero.”
Conclusion: Self-Reliance will be squeezed out. Poroshenko already painfully dislikes it when someone else has a higher rating and he doesn’t control them. Especially now in such turbulent times.
2. Mr. Saakashvili
The absolute incompetence of Saakashvili in perceiving Ukrainian political realities has almost cost him his post and career. He was “brought down to earth” at the end of 2015 and his head subject to control when in late May 2016 searches were held of his office and the house of the Odessa region governor’s assistant advisor, the ex-Consul General of Georgia, Teimuraz Nishnianidze. Searches were also held at the registration place of “For the Benefit of Odessa” foundation, after which Saakachvili broke and finally caved in.
Saakashvili can no longer be considered to have any independence. Bravo, Poroshenko, you’ve done it!
All of Saakashvili’s further political steps will follow the lead of the president, or else he will very quickly find out a bunch of interesting things about himself in the media. And not only him.
3. Mr. Avakov
No full government in Ukraine is possible without total control over the security forces. But the new edition of the constitution subjects the Ministry of Internal Affairs to the Cabinet and the Prime minister. The post of Minister of Internal Affairs was left for the Popular Front as a carrot. However, not even two months passed before conflict began to surface. Just the other day, the completely independent journalist Sergey Leshchenko leaked some dirt on Avakov that could simply slaughter him:
“Citizens don’t know about the Minister of Internal Affairs…In our government, there is not only the first vice premier Kubiv, but also the “super first vice premier” Avakov, whom no one speaks about loudly. Avakov, in fact, has the right to veto government decisions and is the person in the hierarchy of the Popular Front who is the highest representative in the government. All government decisions are agreed upon with him. This man is responsible not only for the Ministry of Internal Affairs, but also, for example, the Ministry of Infrastructure, the streams in the Ministry of Transport, and for ports. What is the relationship between Avakov and the port industry in Ukraine? Why are his ‘overseers’ making money on it? This is a sphere of his responsibility, and this is simply absurd.”
The dirt that Leshchenko unveiled shouldn’t confuse anyone. First of all, the ordinary reader should know that he is not associated with Poroshenko (he is supposedly in opposition) and, secondly, Sergey did not write any of this for 10,000 dollars.
Avakov’s guys did not remain in debt. They sent a “little reply” back to the famous defender of all journalists, Anton Gerashchenko, who is already famous even outside of the country. Their little reply was:
“As regards the statement that Arsen Borisovich Avakov is the ‘super first vice premier,” well, we’ll leave this to be the beautiful words from the past of the journalist Sergey Leshchenko. Avakov is an influential minister, and his opinion is listened to by the president and the prime minister, but his status is minister of internal affairs as deligated to the Popular Front. Let Sergey Leshchenko give an example of a decision blocked by Arsen Avakov. I think that these are nothing more than beautiful words, because the minister of internal affairs does not have the opportunity to decide for everyone. He has just one vote out of 16 or 18 ministers.”
Avakov and the kind-word-sayers controlled by him have become very dangerous for Poroshenko. In addition to all of the above and taking into consideration Mr. Biden’s suddenly resurrected love for Yatsenyuk, I think that nothing good is in store for Avakov. In the best case scenario, resignation awaits him.
4. Yulia Tymoshenko
The queen of political pause has once again proved that she is unsinkable even in current circumstances. Over the past six months, she has become the clear leader of sympathy among the Maidan electorate and is continuing to score points. Her key trump card is the tariff war which she has not yet used to its full extent. She is waiting for fall and the first new pay slips. Besides, she has been waiting for the most unexpected gift from Moscow, Nadezhda Savchenko. Savchenko is perhaps the most consistent and most important enemy of Poroshenko in 2016.
In this case, the sides are digging their trenches and preparing for the decisive battle which will be held in autumn, unless something interferes.
There is obviously more than a little desire to get rid of Yulia. Given the consistency of her party and the loyalty of part of local elites to her, this task is almost impossible. But Poroshenko has no other option.
The Ukrainian political elite has not been such an easy nut to crack for the United States. They thought that everything was in their hands and that all they had to do was want something for it to happen.
But they miscalculated. The current Hetman already lacks the capacity to set the house in order at his own discretion. Someone is constantly trying to steal the chair out from under him, and he is already running out of time to destroy all of his enemies. Instead of one defeat, two new ones are brewing. Political chaos is gradually growing.
The first serious challenge to Poroshenko the hegemon, which he became after Yatsenyuk’s resignation, will be attempting to push a package of laws on Donbass through the parliament. Even if the guarantor of Minsk 2 will be able to do this, then a very hot political autumn awaits him which can only end in early elections to the Rada. And any new Verkhovna Rada, upon dividing up seats, will begin its work on considering the impeachment of the president.