April 15, 2016 –
Andrew Korybko, Katehon –
The Republic of Macedonia fell victim to the US’ latest regime change destabilization against it, with “opposition protesters” rioting in the capitalWednesday night and even ransacking one of the President’s offices. While Hybrid War tension has been building for some time already and was described by the author in numerous publications before, the spark that pushed them into acting was President Ivanov’s surprise declaration of amnesty for all the people under investigation as part of the “wiretapping scandal”, with the Macedonian leaderremarking that this is a necessary step in order to move the country forward and out of the political quagmire. The Color Revolution elements inside of the country exploded into fury at the announcement, enraged that their attempt to use the newly created and McCarty-esque “Special Prosecutor’s Office” as an anti-government witch hunting weapon had been dramatically foiled.
The Enemy Within
In response to the sudden spoiling of its ‘constitutional coup’ plans, the US ordered its subordinate Soros-affiliated “NGO” networks and the “opposition” to turn up the heat against the authorities and initiate the progressive rollout of their second preplanned Hybrid War putsch, setting the Color Revolution wheels into motion in advance of what is expected to be a forthcoming Unconventional Warfare complementary campaign. An unpopular spectrum of anti-government “activists” – including ‘Liberal-Democrats’, Cultural Marxists, and Europhiles (essentially one in the same) – flooded into Skopje in a frenzied effort to turn it into the Balkan Kiev, but once more, the professionalism of the security services and the patriotism of the population played a large role in mitigating the immediate escalation of the urban hostilities and in preventing them from getting totally out of control. The threat still remains and the US’ intention to overthrow the Macedonian government is now out in the open and utterly undeniable to all objective observers at this point, but the hooligans were so far unsuccessful in their plan to exploit their series of violent provocations and create an opening to embed themselves in the middle of the city.
Having taken a day to assess the events of 13 April, they can be seen in hindsight as an unofficial declaration of the US’ second Hybrid War aggression against Macedonia, pushed forwarded a bit from its original launch date due to President Ivanov’s surprise announcement but still close enough to the 5 June early elections to be able to destabilize them. Washington summoned the country’s internal political enemies out into the street in a treasonous act of anti-government defiance in order to intimidate the rest of the country and gin up more support for the movement among society’s most radical elements. The brief period of rioting was also meant as a signal to the Wahhabi/Irredentist Albanians that are under the US and Tirana’s influence (and for some of them, their direct employ) to prepare for launching the next stage of the Hybrid War. This could likely see them staging a Kumanovo-style attack that would in turn activate the Western mainstream media-manipulated narrative that the Macedonian Crisis is a Huntingtonian ‘Clash of Civilizations’ between Muslim Albanians and Orthodox Macedonians, which in any case would complicate the political turmoil by introducing strong shades of identity conflict.
Despite being of critical importance to the stability of the entire Balkan region, the Republic of Macedonia cannot depend on its neighbors for help in overcoming the destabilization, and if anything, all of them besides Serbia have hostile intentions towards it. Before continuing, it’s necessary to expand a bit on Serbia’s projected reaction to all of this, since it’s the first country that would be most immediately affected if Macedonia is thrown into mayhem and at least one million immigrantsconsequently exploit this state of affairs in order to flood across its borders. At the same time, however, Serbia is in no practical position to constructively assist its southern neighbor, and even if it did, it’s all but assured that such moves would instantly and deliberately be misconstrued by the West and each of the two countries’ domestic “opposition” movements and transformed into an anti-government rallying cry . Faced with this reality and the much higher subjective priority that Serbia places on its own internal stability and that of Republika Srpska (which is being rattled by Sarajevo’s institutional attacks against it), Belgrade would probably limit any prospective support to Skopje to the diplomatic-informational realm.
To address the nastiness of the rest of Macedonia’s neighbors which believe they have a stake in the country’s destabilization and potentially even ultimate dissolution, it’s necessary to first and foremost speak about Greece, which has ratcheted up bilateral tension lately by allowing repeated NGO-organized immigrant invasion attempts of the Macedonian border. The lingering “name dispute” is what’s to blame for the Greek authorities’ eagerness to subvert their northern neighbors, believing that if the massive pressure incurred by this cresting human wave can succeed in toppling the authorities and installing Zoran Zaev’s pro-US puppet regime in its place, the new “government” might ‘compromise’ on the Republic of Macedonia’s constitutional name and thereby satisfy Athens’ longstanding will. In order to fulfill the mission that it’s been obsessed with for over two decades now, some Greek authorities are utilizing the tens of thousands of Mideast immigrants that are inside the country’s borders as “Weapons of Mass Migration” against Macedonia, anticipating that they can be employed (both figuratively and literally) as battering rams for pushing forward the US’ regime change agenda and tangentially achieving their own self-interests in the process.
The other two neighbors that are interested in the Macedonian state’s downfall are Albania and Bulgaria, each of which have their own “Greater”/Irredentist aspirations to promote. Nearly a year ago during the last major Hybrid War disturbance in the country, the author wrote about how these two states were poised to exploit Macedonia’s misfortunes in seeking to tear it apart and geopolitically divide it between them, whether formally or via de-facto spheres of influence. The next day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned his Albanian and Bulgarian counterparts against pursuing this dastardly plot, and shortly thereafter the state-to-state tension lightened to a degree and Bulgaria’s “anti-terrorist/anti-refugee” border buildup was revealed to be the naked instrument of bullying pressure that the author predicted it was in the first place. Still, despite backing down from formally trying to unbalance the state and strategically distract the Macedonian authorities, nationalist elements in Bulgaria remain dedicated to turning what they view to derogatorily be an extension of their own country into an outright protectorate or re-annexed territory, and it can’t be dismissed that similar pressures such as the ones from last year will be repeated in the current scenario. Positive media coverage of the “opposition” and any forthcoming extremist Albanian elements would also function in a ‘softer’ but similar way in helping to promote Sofia’s ultimate objectives.
This brings the analysis around to examining Albania’s role in all of the intrigue, which is the most negative one of them all. Amidst its current immigrant outflow and dwindling domestic conditions, the Tirana elite are eager to redirect rising animosity to their rule towards the convenient distraction of promoting “Greater Albania”. Last year the Kumanovo terrorists were reported to have come from the NATO-occupied Serbian Province of Kosovo, and this time it’s believed that any extreme political-insurgent elements within the country will have the full behind-the-scenes support of the Albanian establishment. When it comes to the potential for Wahhabi terrorists and Daesh cells to rear their heads amidst any future conflict, Tirana would probably play a backseat role to all of that by allowing its Turkish ally to take the lead in handling these sorts of terrorists operations, just as it has battletested experience in doing over the past half a decade against Syria, and likely offering up its territory for this purpose. Furthermore, the US already has a brand-new terrorist organization waiting in the wings to act, the “Albanian National Army” that just sprouted up in occupied Kosovo and conveniently, in the reported words of one of its ‘commanders’, “considers NATO to be its friend”. The Albanian-American-Turkish terrorist nexus along the non-Tirana-administered areas of the envisioned “Greater Albania” (NATO-occupied Kosovo and western Macedonia) will definitely play a determining factor in any forthcoming Hybrid War scenarios and presents the utmost greatest threat to regional stability.
Chaos At The Gates
The Republic of Macedonia is at the literal forefront of the US’ War on Europe, as the author explained in a prior piece for Katehon pertaining to the Immigrant Crisis. It’s recommended that the reader review the aforementioned citation if they’re not yet familiar with the author’s analysis on this topic, but the general idea is that the US is employing “Weapons of Mass Migration” in order to place the EU into a permanent state of Hybrid War tension and facilitate the Color Revolution removal of leaders that have pragmatic engagement with Russia and China. On a more regional level, the US is targeting the Republic of Macedonia and Serbia because they’re the key bottleneck states in actualizing China’s Balkan Silk Road project, which if completed, would complement Russia’s currently suspended Balkan Stream gas pipeline and together create the infrastructural backbone of a multlipolar future for Europe.
Regional Tidal Wave:
Hybrid War in and of itself is destabilizing for any country and region that suffers from its most intense manifestations, but the most direct and debilitating form of chaos that it immediately leads to is an outflow of immigrants/refugees/undercover terrorists to and from the battlespace. This takes on a particular significance in the present day given the ongoing Immigrant Crisis and Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s February dire warning to the world that “hundreds and thousands of extremists enter Europe under the guise of being refugees.” The Republic of Macedonia is literally on the frontlines of this crisis and has amazingly stood strong in the face of the overwhelming odds against it, but faced with the recent commencement of Hybrid War within its borders and the possibility of the Color Revolution disturbances transforming into an all-out Unconventional War, it’s uncertain at this time how effectively it’ll be able to hold out.
Greece’s repeated border subversions and the culpability that some of its government authorities and hosted NGOs have in worsening the Immigrant Crisis and funneling its most destabilizing elements northward to Macedonia can expectedly be taken to mean that the security services will have their work cut out for them in juggling the nascent Color Revolution threat, snuffing out any Unconventional Warfare ones infiltrating in from Albania and/or NATO-occupied Kosovo, and securing the border from an outright immigrant invasion. Furthermore, if Bulgaria once more decides to provocatively send troops to the Macedonian border amidst a rapidly escalating climax of the situation, then it could have the effect of stretching the Macedonian authorities’ concentration much too thin and opening up strategic vulnerabilities on one of these multiple fronts that could then be instantaneously exploited by the US and its allies in accordance to their many preplanned and forecasted scenarios. The end result of a successful regime change in Macedonia would be the barbarian-like storming of the country’s territory and an uncontrollable surge of up to one million immigrants right through the heart of the Central Balkans, precisely at the moment in time when the regional states had begun to finally breathe a collective sigh of relief that the worst point of the crisis was behind them.
Reinforcing The Front:
In dealing with this possible eventuality, it’s necessary that the Macedonian authorities receive some sort of multilateral physical support from the same stakeholders that most immediately have something to lose if the government falls and becomes a doormat for the US’ “Weapons of Mass Migration” to invade Europe. Right now, as the author previously analyzed in an article for The Saker, the status quo equilibrium and the de-facto closure of the “Balkan Corridor” is presently maintained by joint the Austrian-Hungarian leadership that brought all of the Balkan states together and got them to overlook their bickering in favor of pursuing a collective and coordinated solution to the problem that plagues them all. The most effective way to proactively counter the chances that the incipient Hybrid War in Macedonia will demolish the border ‘floodgates’ and inundate Europe with an uncontrollable flow of “Weapons of Mass Migration” is for this temporary Central European-led security structure to take on a heightened role (by official Macedonian invitation, of course) in patrolling the Greek border and thus giving the authorities more flexibility in responding to the US’ other provocations.
Macedonia convincingly appears to be on the brink of a large destabilization, a second Hybrid War that’s directly targeting its government but is also indirectly aimed at destroying the prospects that Russia and China have for progressively liberating Europe from unipolarity. Washington has thrown down the gauntlet, as expected, in using its proxies to send a strong message to Skopje that its democratic security methods in foiling the “Special Prosecutor Office’s” ‘constitutional coup’ plot and in protecting Europe from the uncontrollable ravages of the Immigrant Crisis will be met with the harshest asymmetrical response possible.
The growing threat that a full-scale Hybrid War will break out in the Republic of Macedonia is very high, and the Moscow-based Katehon think tank wisely suggeststhat harsh anti-riot measures be immediately implemented in order to contain the Color Revolution threat. If the authorities can get a handle on dealing with this latest destabilization before it gets out of control, then they’ll be in a better position for responding to any predicted “Greater Albania” and/or Daesh terrorist attacks that might break out before the 5 June early elections. If these two pressing internal threats can be effectively neutralized, then Macedonia won’t be as vulnerable to the direct subversion that its Albanian, Bulgarian, and Greek neighbors are plotting against it with American and Turkish ‘Lead From Behind’ assistance.
If worst comes to worst, then Macedonia could greatly benefit from multilateral assistance in reinforcing its border with Greece so that its security services could more easily react to internal provocations as they arise, which would thus enable the government to put down any destabilizing domestic disturbances while relying on its international partners and equal strategic stakeholders in protecting the southern border from a “Weapons of Mass Migration” invasion into all of them. The less than two-month period before the election will be absolutely critical for the stability of the Balkans and the rest of Europe, but if history is any indication, then just as they did last year around this time, the Macedonian people will legendarily succeed in knocking out the Hybrid War threat that the US is once more siccing on them and ultimately landing Uncle Sam another embarrassing black eye.