January 9, 2015
Dmitry Brovkin for Politica-ua.com
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
Kolomoisky will first overthrow the President, then launch a war against Russia.
The refusal of the Right Sector to become part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was predictable. Having obtained the positions of the Prime Minister and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council [a reference to Yatsenyuk and Turchinov who the author assumes are controlled by Kolomoisky], Kolomoisky had become invulnerable to Poroshenko. Consequently Kolomoisky no longer needs Poroshenko. Therefore Poroshenko will soon be facing a third Maidan. Its moving force will be the most combat-ready private army of the Dnepropetrovsk oligarch governor.
A specter of the third Maidan has been haunting Kiev for a long time. And it seems that right now the specter is transforming into a real threat of a coup d’etat.
As I said earlier, the political wing of Igor Kolomoisky, in the shape of Yatsenyuk-Turchinov, will never come to terms with the Poroshenko bloc and his presidential “stovepipe” of power.
The appearance of unity which the President has been relentlessly promoting by giving Yatsenyuk the Prime Ministership and Turchinov the National Defense Secretary position, and with expanded authority at that, will soon backfire on Poroshenko in the form of an actual war with Kolomoisky. And that war is unavoidable.
The first reason of this war is the ever-growing presidential ambition of Yatsenyuk who is far more preferable to America than Poroshenko. And now that Poroshenko had totally lost EU’s confidence, it is a good time to start one.
Secondly, the overthrow of Poroshenko will become an excellent means of not simply distracting the Ukrainian society from the social genocide of Ukrainians launched by Yatsenyuk’s “reforms”, but moreover transfer full responsibility for it to Poroshenko. Moreover, several politicians, including Oleg Tsarev, have noted that the PR wing of the People’s Front received orders to discount the role of Poroshenko, and to blame him for all of the country’s misfortunes, from the hryvnya devaluation to the economic catastrophe.
Thirdly, on the eve of the carving up of strategic state assets in cooperation with US investment funds, which was announced by the US finance minister of Ukraine, Kolomoisky needs full control over the country. For him this is a unique opportunity to seize control over choice enterprises. Kolomoisky clearly does not want to share with Poroshenko who, like Yanukovych, tried to put the oligarch in his place after the “coronation.”
The expected public refusal of the Right Sector to become part of the Armed Forces should be considered the gauntlet thrown down by Kolomoisky before Poroshenko.
[Editors note: the HQ of the Right Sector for Dnepropetrovsk are located in the Regional Administration building – the office of Kolomoisky.]
This means that the currently most combat-effective personal army of Kolomoisky is not taking orders of the Commander in Chief, but is ready to follow any order of National Defense secretary Turchinov.
One of the possible scenarios of Poroshenko’s overthrow looks as follows: Turchinov introduces martial law and gives orders to attack Crimea. Poroshenko tries to resist. Then he is arrested, placed before tribunal, and Turchinov becomes acting Commander in Chief.
And then everything becomes simple: Ukrainian forces, National Guard, and volunteer battalions are sent to the border with Russia. Right Sector carries out massive punitive operations in Odessa, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and other potentially restive regions of the country. It organizes mass mobilization in order to throw into combat all men, without exception.
Understandably, no actual offensive against Crimea will take place. It will be limited to border incidents. But Russia will be forced to respond with war. Thousands of soldiers will perish. America and its European satellites will blame Putin for aggression. NATO will set up military bases in Ukraine. A full scale World War III erupts.
With God’s help, this scenario will never come to pass. But, considering the logic of the political-military battles between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky, everything is lining up in that direction.
The most unlikely part of the scenario is the attempt to provoke Russia into a war, Russia’s dutiful response, and then NATO’s escalation of conflict. While Yatsenyuk and Turchinov might be tempted to force escalation of the conflict, so far they haven’t dared to do so, limiting themselves to claims of massive Russian invasions. Moreover, the Russian military could simply respond by destroying any Ukrainian forces on its side of the border, which would make it very difficult for NATO to intervene.
However, the outlined plot against Poroshenko rings true. Poroshenko is indeed being isolated and marginalized, and even though he is the Commander in Chief, he does not have exclusive control over the whole spectrum of the country’s means of violence. A more likely scenario is a successful assassination of Poroshenko which can be easily blamed on “FSB operatives”, “disaffected Yanukovych supporters”, or some other plausible third party. Once Poroshenko is dead, the paramilitaries move in, ostensibly to provide security in the wake of what appears to be a coup attempt, but in reality to take over government buildings and to complete the ouster of Poroshenko’s appointees from the government. The recent deployment of National Guard to Odessa, for no apparent reasons, may have been a rehearsal of this operation. The window of opportunity to overthrow Poroshenko has opened. Now all one needs is a “Reichstag fire”.