|“Go to the elections, choose your own fascist!”|
Rostislav Ishchenko for the “Actual Comments”
November 7, 2014
The expert community had awakened. Almost all. Even yesterday’s pessimists are no longer arguing about for how much and how will Novorossia be sold out, but solely on the timing of the beginning of
It is a comforting fact. Not because the experts finally saw the obvious, but due to the fact that .
Lets try to play for Kiev, and see what kind of resources for it has left.
The current situation was predetermined at the time when Poroshenko decided to fight for early parliamentary elections. I wrote many times that the old Rada was not an obstacle to him, on the contrary was even more controllable than it could become and has become. Also in May, when Peter Alexeyevich first announced the intention to dissolve the Parliament, I warned that he will get . I will not once again explain why this was inevitable. During the election campaign, the inevitable became a reality.
What do we have in Kiev and the surrounding areas today?
Maidan politicians quite realistically assessed the situation with the elections and realized two obvious things:
1. They have
2. People who staged an armed coup in February, did not disappear. On the contrary, during the civil war they got organized, got more armed and on the election results the same way they solved the problem of Yanukovych. Having once used weapons to solve domestic problems, they will not stop. Especially that the military pressure is the only available way for them to participate in politics.
The only true solution was obvious: if you want to get a decent result in the elections, you must rely on armed force. As a result the party lists and single-mandate constituencies , “victory” of whom was supposed to be provided by not the will of the people, but the armed pressure of their comrades-in-arms on voters and election commissions. But the respective “associates” were supposed to be at the right time in the right place.
As a result, a significant part of the most ideological personnel of various volunteer, territorial and other battalions, as well as some parts (bought for the occasion by oligarchs) of the regular army, were not at the front, but as key locations for “counting” the votes. So naturally, most of the militants descended on Kiev, because the CEC (Central Election Commission) makes the last and final verdict.
Naturally, not all of these “political actors” with guns are going to go back to the front. Much cheaper and safer (in all respects) is “controlling authority” in Kiev. Thus, fighting for power Kiev politicians themselves have flooded the capital with uncontrolled armed force.
The situation is complicated by the fact that the politicians are fighting for and share power and ownership among all or at least the most influential. There is simply not enough for all, and support groups (not only the battalions, but politicians and financiers who invested in the relevant political forces) require compensation for their efforts and expenses. If they are not satisfied with you, they will switch to a more successful leader.
That is, the space for the amicable political compromise solution to the conflict caused by the struggle for power, is missing. Well, if you cannot agree, bayonets remain the last argument in a dispute and their involvement is , as well as front-line scorecards (who betrayed and framed who, who did not share loot with the neighbor, who deserted, and who’s blood was shed and so on).
The next layer is open fatigue of the population from rapidly deteriorating economic situation, senseless civil war (in victory of which no one believes) and perpetrated by the authorities from the first match. Not to erupt for Novorossia, but against the “traitors of the ideas of Maidan”, but that doesn’t help the traitors.
To temporarily let off steam is only possible by throwing a sacrificial lamb to the crowd. But the time when the Regionals or the Communists could be sacrificed has already passed. The Nazis, of course, are ready to kill more of them, as well as all the “vatniki”, “colorados” and other anti-fascists, but someone in the current government has to answer to the people for the February-November period of Ukrainian history . And there are not many of them: Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, Turchynov, Avakov, a dozen smaller politicians – that’s the whole list. And they all filled the two main opposing factions: the Popular Front of Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko Block.
Armed and very angry at the world and each other people . This is not “Berkut”, who for months waited patiently for orders from Yanukovych’s team on the dispersal of Maidan. These are gangs of soldiers of fortune. If they are not thrown at the enemy, they will rush at you. Thus, Kiev politicians do not have that much time. Fighters should get the order to “Go” in the coming days, maximum a week.
Of course, you can use the old as the world trick and dispose of mercenaries at the front. But there are unsolvable problems. First, with a probability of 100% if they receive orders to go to the front, they will act as the Petrograd garrison in February 1917, for which only unverified rumors about a decision to advance was enough to overthrow the monarchy, which was much stronger than the yatsenyuk-poroshenko team of .
Secondly, the Kiev army, after the August defeat, is not able to conduct military operations for more then two weeks (but most likely the front will fall even sooner). After that, the Kiev government is faced with not only the militants who want to revenge on the “traitors, guilty of defeat”, but with the , who also wants to present a bill for the destruction of cities, murdered civilians, and tortured captive comrades.
The rate of advance of the militia will be determined by its relatively small size. Therefore it will not be able to reach Kiev quickly. It will be necessary to pause, take control of the occupied territories, conduct mobilization activities, merge local partisans into fighting units and then move on. This creates another problem for Kiev. In the case of lightning approach of the army of Novorossia to the capital, the government could flee abroad to work as “government in exile” and for the next 50 years to lecture and to write memoirs about how “the Russian totalitarian Asian horde strangled a young Ukrainian-European democracy”.
But, as between the beginning of the attack of the militia and the capture of Kiev there will be no less than one to two months, maybe more, for the Nazi gangsters from punitive battalions there will be more than enough time of the Maidan and the authorities in Kiev will not only have no reason to run to the West, but most likely will not even think of it. They will continue to direct the Nazis against each other and wait for when the U.S. will solve all of their problems.
In fact what are considered the Kiev authorities (although this has long been the conglomerate of , just about ready to go into the category of real corpses) can choose between starting a shootout in Kiev, with the subsequent collapse of the front or the collapse of the front with the subsequent shootout in Kiev.
It is obvious that the regions which have not come under the control of militia and have not started a revolt, will not necessarily agree with the results of another armed revolution in Kiev. Some will deny to submit to the rebels, others will “(since now everyone has territorial battalions, and the military resources of the authorities after a coup will be sharply reduced). In general, the progression of makhnovshina [anarchy] will be almost instant.
Of course, the first candidate for “sacrifice” for the crowds will be Poroshenko. People are used to the idea that the President is responsible for everything. In addition, supporters of peace will be disappointed by his inability to bring peace, as supporters of war will show him the bill for defeat, as the Commander-in-Chief. Finally, he is an oligarch with business in Russia (almost a perfect traitor of the Motherland).
But this does not mean that Poroshenko will be the last victim. Once hated by almost all, Yanukovych was the last barrier between bad order and a rebellion, so today Poroshenko is the last barrier between the remnants of formal statehood and . Under conditions of complete anarchy nobody needs Yatsenyuk or the government or the parliament deputies or political parties, or even journalists and political strategists of Maidan. Every “Pan Hetman” has their own “golden reserve”, which is determined by the number of bayonets under control, and the number of bayonets – by the luck of “Pan Hetman” in obtaining the “golden reserve”.
And I’m afraid that very soon the Kiev “Europeans” who have “not noticed” the Nazis before and considered (including aviation and ballistic missiles) against civilian towns, will learn that Nazi gangs rob and kill not only “colorados” and use artillery against “Europeans” with no less pleasure than against “vatniki”.
By the way intra-Nazi and “intra-European” conflict in Kiev is a good chance for many of the remaining supporters of the Russian world to survive. They will quickly cease to be the main target, and the final collapse of the state machine will not allow to use centralized repressions against them. The militants will seek out their victims not by ideology, but . Of course, those who will express their position with at least the degree of openness which was possible during Poroshenko, will be destroyed by Makhno-Nazis without hesitation. Also at risk are those people who are widely known. But, for those who are not as well known and will not look for trouble, having expensive cars, nice clothes and an apartment in a prestigious area will be more dangerous than having antifascist views.
One consolation – long “celebration of the Nazi democracy” will not last. The EU will “see the light” even faster than our expert community. Incidentally September alarmists would have to publicly apologize – as a result of repeatedly questioned ceasefire, “all is lost” not in Moscow and not in Novorossia, but in .
Translated by Kristina Rus