Signs of the approaching Storm (for many still invisible) are already being felt stronger and stronger. A large Storm has festered for a long time. It has been artificially postponed by the government for two months, so its strength will be enormous. The Storm has several dimensions. Each one is interesting:
1. The Front.
Stable for a while front allowed the parties to gain strength, to regroup and to resupply. An attempt to resolve conflicts by political means failed. Each of the parties, for whatever reason, did not agree to the demands of the opponent (much of it written in my blog I will not repeat.). So according to the good old tradition – guns will decide what the diplomats failed to solve. Until the beginning of the ‘solution’ – DAYS. Military storm is part one.
2. The Elections.
Simultaneous elections in time of war is a challenge. First of all it is a challenge to the sustainability of the political system. Donbass on the eve of the elections has been able to overcome the differences and rally behind a single decision-making centre. In Kiev this was not possible. In fact the elections are that attempt. Frankly not the most reasonable solution for the state of war. Against the backdrop of the upcoming decisive battles at the front, a coup (even unrest) in the capital and other cities, can cause a military catastrophe (at least Poroshenko will have a wonderful alibi). The political storm is part TWO.
3. The Home Front
The home front demands attention and ‘resources’. The country is hanging over the abyss. Continuation of the active phase of the war will not push it there (it will happen anyway), but will make this process more rapid, profound and unmanageable. If Donbass has nothing else to lose, for Ukraine it will be approaching Armageddon (that is – the current state of Donbass). And on the eve of this battle to learn that your brothers-allies (United States, Europe) are openly distancing from you was a very unpleasant surprise for Ukraine. So the economic storm is part THREE.
Thus the next few days will likely be the point of rupture. Rupture, after which the war (in the broad sense of the word) will no longer be in just two-three former regions of Ukraine, but all over this once-blooming and dying (as a state) country. And the people of those territories should be ready.
If there is no shooting – doesn’t mean there is no war. Ukrainians will have to live with this. That is, try to survive. Now all Ukrainians. Because the reserve of durability of project ‘Ukraine’ has come to an end. And in all three aspects: military, political, economic.
P.S. God forgive and save these people, for they do not know what they are doing …
Translated by Kristina Rus