|Center for Syncretic Studies|
Part 6 in our series
This is the 6th installment of a series of related reports on the real underlying methods and framework which characterize the Ukrainian civil war. These are thorough in exploring and explaining, in as full a way as possible, the most relevant factors which operate upon this phenomenon. Like our previous works on the subject, this report is approximately 50 pages at about 15,500 words. In addition to these six reports, there are another dozen or so shorter articles on the subject to be found on our site, as well as about two dozen interviews and podcasts, which can be found either in the multimedia section or embedded in the shorter articles where indicated. Being familiar with our past reports makes this report more flexible. A reader is then able to read each chapter as a stand-alone article.
he election of Sunday, October 26th, was called by Poroshenko to ostensibly push the government into an even further anti-Russian position. On the face of it, the election aimed to escalate what has been termed a ‘lustration’ process . This fits well into the common narrative, being that Poroshenko is directly controlled by the US to push against Russia. While this is true, there is also another more complex dynamic unfolding, which will be explored in this report.
However, the banned Communist Party of Ukraine, coupled with a crippled Party of Regions, a raging civil war, and roving bands of Pravy Sektor hooligans on the US dole to silence dissent in major Ukrainian cities and towns, meant that an increase of various anti-Russian political formations in the Rada was a foregone conclusion. In order to guarantee that the vote was pulled in the right direction, there must be a marked increase in KJ military activities on the day of the election. As we wrote about last month, if the Novorossiyans want to see the KJ government stay together, they will wait until after the election and even the formation of a new government before the NM speaks positively of any results.
On the NM side, the Voentorg will be ‘reopened’ at the earliest need, insofar as it falls within Russia’s ability to control the pacing and information-war side of this conflict. The Voentorg has a much more interesting role, much more than a mere distributor of army supplies. Since the start of this conflict, we have explained in numerous talks and articles how Russian soldiers and people with military backgrounds have funneled their way into Novorossiya. Voentorg has come to mean this process or method of organization.
On September 15th we published a broad piece which forewarned the possibility of the US backing their own Pravy Sektor and Svoboda Party to oust the (also US backed) nominally republican Poroshenko led junta government in Kiev. Recent developments in the Ukraine conflict continue to confirm the explanatory and predictive power of this thesis. We laid out only several possibilities out of several others, and due to the type of piece and medium used, it is natural that we did not dissect every variable. This is not even technically possible without the use of complex game theory, with stochastic modeling based on infinite sets, as we have elaborated in greater detail in our past pieces.
But what is clear is this: so-called ‘far right’ groups in Ukraine are being backed by the US in order to increase pressure on Poroshenko, who by virtue of his position alone, nominally represents the last hanging threads of civil society. The US also backs Svoboda and other Pravy Sektor groups, an outgrowth of the Social-Nationalists and the surrounding, related, movement. These in turn are a combined Operation Gladio and OG-B , as it is adapted for the Arab Spring tactic, whose external media is Radio Svoboda. RS is openly a project of Radio Free Europe.
Our thesis presented in the last piece on this subject titled “Pravy Sektor Coup as ISIS Scenario: NATO to Feign a ‘Unilateral’ Alliance With Russia“, of September 15th, has since shown increasing signs of coming into fruition. Because this is a strategy which the US has developed and has already used in other theaters, the nature and success of its use in Ukraine will be determined by both Russian responses and proactive measures. So while it is inevitable that the US will attempt to create a failed state in Ukraine, it is not inevitable that they will succeed.
Yarosh continues to threaten the Rada and Poroshenko with violence and ”revolution”, if the state does not take on more Banderist positions and recognize those traditions, and does not prosecute the war effort further. This known tactic is ‘win-win’ for the Pravy Sektor, and even for Svoboda who act as something as a quasi-legitimate transmission belt of the former, into what can be called the ‘mainstream’. This is the case because failing to heed Svoboda and Pravy Sektor demands demonstrates the failures of Poroshenko and the strength of the Svoboda and PS position, and yet heeding those same demands demonstrates the same.
As indications which corroborate our hypothesis mount, variations of this hypothesis have subsequently been echoed by popular journalists and bloggers on the subject. In general, it is now possible to confirm that our framework for understanding this conflict has been validated. The Russians are indeed involved in a very sophisticated use of 4GW strategies and tactics to advance their position, as well as a ‘new media’ campaign which corresponds to (is actually part of) 4GW. They are using, also, new media methods to create a more effective simulacrum in which various hyper-realities are constructed.
Mostly these revolve around a lack of Russian support or resolve, and Novorossiyan weakness and divisions. Variations and details involve Putin, Oligarchs, and the promulgation of various forms of magical thinking which reduce complex geostrategic and geopolitical matters to the arbitrary or even calculated flailings of the assorted personalities involved. Because this magical thinking is a human tendency in the first place, rather than struggling against this tendency, it is instead most prudent to write the script for this inevitable drama in a manner which conforms to the geostrategic and geopolitical goals of the Russian side.
While this election will serve a purpose in this unfolding drama, its results should be understood as a sign post, more so than a monumental change. Contradictory forces act upon these events, and each phenomenon has the potential to be pulled to the advantage of either of the contending sides. In general these elections are going to be used by the Atlanticists to further push along the destabilization of Ukraine. In the narrow sense of the Rada election results, Poroshenko and the US need, in most ways, the same result.