January 17, 2017 -
Ruslan Ostashko, LiveJournal - translated by J. Arnoldski -
The circus has left town but the clowns have remained. This is precisely how to characterize the current situation in Kiev. The circus role was played by Barack Obama’s Democratic administration whom American voters recently showed the door. This circus has left, but Victoria Nuland’s favorite clown, Petro Poroshenko, is still acting in Kiev. The deputy chief of the American Karabas-Barabas, US Vice President Joe Biden, has come to visit the unruly pet in Kiev. What caused this visit?
As is known, Biden talks to Poroshenko more often than he talks to his own wife…But it is impossible make a clown into a professional statesman. In fact, Poroshenko can’t even be made into a professional colonial administrator. This is a fact. I think that Biden is unlikely to resist the temptation to express to the Ukrainian president everything he thinks about his behavior and the results of his work. If the so-called “Kissinger plan”, which involves transferring Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence, turns out to at least partially correspond to reality, then it can be said that Poroshenko lost the most important chance in his life by not fulfilling Biden’s instructions from his penultimate visit to Kiev.
Look what happened. Biden demanded that Poroshenko actually launch the process of Ukraine’s federalization, and he even spoke at the Rada in an attempt to convince Ukrainian deputies that a federation is good and cool, even citing the example of the US. It is difficult to say what the cause for not fulfilling these instructions was. Perhaps Poroshenko was afraid that this first attempt to fulfill part of the Minsk Agreements would lead to a Nazi coup in Kiev and his own murder. Perhaps he believed that real federalization is impossible to push through the Rada, and this is likely the explanation that he offered Biden. Or perhaps Poroshenko believed that the current configuration of the frozen conflict in Donbass quite satisfies him insofar as it offers the opportunity to endlessly steal from the military budget and blame all of the country’s socio-economic problems on the war. It is probably one of the above reasons that played a role.
If the process of settling the Ukrainian crisis had already been launched and confirmed by EU and Russian leaders, and not frozen by Poroshenko’s efforts, then it would be difficult for Trump to change anything now, and there would have been no particular reason to do so. Poroshenko would have a rather comfortable position in the Minsk process that could defend him from Nazi claims to power.
But what has happened in the end? It turns out that what the Kissinger plan spoke of is underway. Trump will simply put Ukraine and Poroshenko up for sale and try to extract something useful for himself during negotiations with Putin. The Ukrainian president will have no way to influence these negotiations. Nor will Biden, even though according to American analysts he is now doing everything to complicate any “sale of Ukraine to Putin.”
The US Vice President must now conjure words of support and comfort for his Ukrainian minions, but this changes nothing in this sad situation for them. Their fate will be decided not in Kiev and not in Washington, but at the negotiating table of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian politicians still have not understood that they are not players in international politics and that the might of the US presidential administration depends on the chair and table in the White House. Now a new owner has moved in and the old furniture could come under the hammer.
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