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    November 30, 2016

    Geopolitics 101: Will Russia win the French Elections?

    November 30, 2016 - Fort Russ - 
    Ruslan Ostashko, Livejournal - translated by J. Arnoldski - 



    The results of the French primaries have alarmed the Russian and European mediasphere. Political analysts and journalists have once again started to play the game “find the agent of Putin” and actively discuss just how “anti-Russian” or “pro-Russian” of a French president Francois Fillon will be after having won the French right’s primaries. 

    Western media are writing off as Putin’s agents anyone who opposes the domination of international politics by the supranational oligarchy which Putin spoke of at Valdai. It’s also been revealed that the Russian president has positively characterized Fillon. Now it is generally useless to try to prove to the French media that Fillon is not a KGB agent. 

    Well, fine. Western media is a whole different story of that disease called Russophobia which has long since taken the form of paranoia. But the persistence with which the Russian expert community is discussing whether Fillon is or is not a friend of Russia seems to me to be very unhealthy.

    There are no “friends” in geopolitics. There are interests that either coincide or do not match up. There are the fanatic Russophobes like Hillary Clinton or the Baltic politicians with whom our interests will never coincide for the simple reason that they basically want to see us all in a coffin. That’s it. There are not, haven’t been, and won’t be any “friends.” There are leaders and countries with whom we have common interests and with whom we can mutually cooperate. 

    Fillon is a pragmatist, not a fanatic. And this is good. Putin productively worked with him during the period that Fillon was prime minister. This is wonderful. Fillon has quite pragmatic reasons for wanting to restore relations with Russia, and this is also great. Here are those reasons.

    For this leader of the French systemic right, i.e., the Republicans, it is important to solve the problem of ISIS. But the problem of ISIS cannot be resolved without Russia. The main contender for the presidential post understands this. This is the first serious reason to cooperate with Russia.

    Fillon is not a Eurosceptic. He believes in the European project. To paraphrase Trump, we can say that Fillon wants to make Europe great again. But in order to do this, economic cooperation with Russia is inevitably necessary insofar as Russia is practically important as Europe’s energy supplier and a critically important logistics hub connecting Europe and China into one economic space. This is the second reason to cooperate with Russia.

    Fillon is an old school conservative. He is against gay marriage, uncontrolled migration, and he is for globalization taking into account national interests and not being pursued at the expense of his country’s national interests. With whom can he cooperate on these conditions? Merkel? Soros? No - with Putin, who promotes a similar approach to solving international problems and protecting traditional values.

    It is difficult to predict who will win the French elections. Any outcome is beneficial for us as long as a simply pragmatic politician comes to power in France who can be seriously negotiated with and who will simply serve French interests as he understands them. 

    Fillon is well suited for this role. Le Pen is also suitable. But the only difference between them from the Russian point of view is the following: Le Pens’s victory would almost guarantee the collapse of the European Union. Fillon’s victory is perhaps the only chance for the EU to survive, carry out necessary reforms, and become a true home for all Europeans, not an instrument in the hands of Soros and other representatives of the supranational oligarchy and bureaucracy. 


    Who is better for us is debatable. But I am convinced that we can derive some benefit out of any outcome. 



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    Item Reviewed: Geopolitics 101: Will Russia win the French Elections? Rating: 5 Reviewed By: Jafe Arnoldski
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