Novorosinform - by: Andrew Polubota, adapted and translated by J. Flores
["Russia is preparing an operation in Novorossiya", and some interesting comments from Gorbachev - the one single man who can't seem to understand his share of responsibility for this whole global mess. - ed ]
Russia has just moved four divisions, nine brigades and 22 regiments along with two missile brigades with complexes "Iskander-M" into the south-west of the Russia, toward Ukraine, under Shoigu's orders.
The Ukrainian army is preparing for a new offensive in the Donbass, Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vitaly Churkin said recently. Typically, high-ranking officials don not give such warnings unless they are based on carefully gathered intelligence. Churkin is no exception.
However, Ukrainian politicians themselves hardly hide their warlike intentions.
All this is happening against the backdrop of tightening anti-Russian rhetoric in the West. Even a politician who's always been loyal to the West, ex-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, saw signs of the world sliding into a new global war. "NATO has begun preparations for the escalation of the Cold War into the Hot", he told Interfax.
"All the rhetoric in Warsaw just almost screams their desire to declare war on Russia. They only talk about defense, but actually are preparing for the offensive ", Gorbachev said.
Almost simultaneously, a contender for the presidency of the United States, Hillary Clinton announced that her main task as president is in ensuring the safety of Americans. Including from the " Russian threat ".
Clinton also expressed confidence that the United States has come to its "moment of truth". The ex-Secretary of State continued:
Powerful forces threaten to tear us apart. Trust and respect has grown thin.
Clinton represents the American war party. Her election will signify that the US is still thinking it can be a contender for power in the region.
But there is also of course the possibility of 'wagging the dog'. The neo-con forces actively involved in supporting the Kiev government may want to force the situation from their forward position. If they can draw the US into a greater conflict, then those vectors of American power may gather support from all the rest.
In such an event, we would really be seeing a showdown between Hillary Clinton and the People's Militia of Donbass. But this would be not much more than a continuation of Obama's policy. The difference, of course, are the continued changing of conditions, and being under new conditions as they are, we may see the US believe it can make some decisive change in its recent series of frustrations and set backs.
On the other hand is the 'Trump Card', which at first many around the world viewed as the 'Hawks'. But upon a closer analysis, this turns out perhaps not to be case so much.
But Russia is rising to meet the increasing military threats on its southern and western borders, along with the increased political discord this represents. According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his department has taken appropriate action in connection with political tensions in the south-western strategic direction, given NATO's military presence
Characteristically we have the show-and-tell game of military muscle on the other side of the Donbass front which comes at the start of the Olympic Games. It may not be just a coincidence, but a pragmatic account of the political situation in the leading capitals. After all, the West has twice tried during World Sports Games (summer - and winter in Beijing - Sochi) to hand Russia an unexpected geopolitical blow.
In general, it seems that we are now on the eve of some terrible events. According to analysts, most likely, they should be expected in the Donbass. The scenario of a decisive Kiev attack on DPR and LPR in the near future is quite realistic. If that happens, the armed conflict may go far beyond the region. Because with such a turn of events, neither Moscow nor Washington can simply sit on the sidelines.
The only question is whether Russia and the United States will decide on an open military conflict in the Ukraine? If yes, on what scale would this clash be? And what will be the consequences for the whole world?
"Indeed, the situation is tense", says a leading expert of the Center for Military-Political Studies, Moscow State Institute Mikhail Alexandrov. "The fact that Kiev now openly flaunts a possible start of a great military operation" he explains.
Now Ukraine's economic situation has sharply worsened, and there are no prospects for its improvement. In addition, the Western financial institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund has refused to grant new loans. Against this background, Kiev is trying to blackmail everyone, not just us.
Almost in the same degree Ukraine is blackmailing the West. The logic is simple: "Now we start a war, and you have to disentangle. Let's take the money. "
Russia is trying to make traction on gas issues, as well as in the dispute over the infamous trёhmilliardnogo loan, which we tried to resolve through London courts.
Therefore, all the statements of Kiev "hawks", I no longer consider as blackmail. However, there is one small, but a serious stroke in this situation, which can not be ignored. Obama left the presidency without achieving great success elsewhere. In foreign policy he ha continuous failures. The most important one being Syria.
Therefore, Obama - as a narrow-minded person and a politician, can finally try to take revenge, to improve his legacy. He may try to tie our hands to war with Ukraine, so that we can not be active in Syria.
Obama is pushing for this, and then there is the fact that Turkey cannot strongly oppose the fact that we are in Syria. So, in Russia there is a real opportunity to help the forces of Bashar Assad's groupings inflict a decisive defeat on the Islamists in the country.
If Obama decides to such a move, it can only hurt the United States. The review of Ambassador Zurabov speaks volumes. This suggests that the Russian leadership finally gave up the idea of placing any hopes on Poroshenko. After all Zurabov tried to convince the Kremlin that actually Petro Poroshenko did not want war. He thinks Poroshenko, whatever one may think of this, hinders the Ukrainian "party of war".
As you can see, it was the wrong point of view, a total miscalculation of profane proportions. Following the removal of Zurabov, we can expect a more active position of Russia in the issue of Donbass. And if Kiev will go about another military adventure, it is possible that Russia will respond with large-scale offensive operations.
What could be the purpose of such an operation ?
Mikhail Alexandrov: "It depends on many factors. Perhaps the offensive will stop at the former administrative border of Lugansk and Donetsk regions. And maybe an operation "Novorossiya" will be announced. In the bold option would be to overthrow of the current pro-Western regime in Kiev, and the holding of new presidential elections in Ukraine."
"In favor of the view that Russia is ready to respond to the aggression of the military operation against the Ukrainian Armed Force and the ATO in the DPR and LPR is the fact that we have built up significant troops on the southern borders and do not hide it."
"In 2014, one of the factors that held back the Kremlin from sending troops to the Ukraine, was the uncertainty that we have enough military forces to take control of the whole country. And now, without further mobilization deployed along the western borders of the forces will be enough to take at least a South-East of Ukraine."
Obama has repeatedly said that the fight for Ukraine will not be America.This is indeed the case?
Mikhail Alexandrov: "The United States will not go to war directly against Russia over Ukraine. They will continue the tactics - to fight against us with mercenaries and with armed Ukrainians. Direct input of some military units of NATO in the area of armed conflict would mean a great loss for the West in a conventional war. Not only that, the world would face the threat of nuclear war. Back in 2014, I said that NATO has no strength or determination for a Third World War."
"In any case, it is completely useless for them to get involved in a direct clash with Russia."
"True, there was still the "Trump Factor," which makes us think of American "hawks". But this is not so. They were counting on a long-term strategy of Russian oppression. Within two or three years, they would like to prepare the Ukrainian army enough, and at the same time to increase its group in Eastern Europe before things got to really serious proportions. And when the UAF would have gone on the offensive in the DPR and LPR, NATO troops near our western borders would be a serious deterrent to Moscow."
"And now strangely it may turn out that Trump, should he become president, will refocus US policy on China and international terrorism in the Middle East. And with Russia he will try to reach a compromise. Not that in fact one can be reached, but seriously try."
"But if we succeed, the entire course on building the NATO forces will fail. American "hawks" of course, do not like this. Therefore, the situation is suspended. I repeat: the Americans may try to drag us into a war in Ukraine, so that they have more opportunities in Syria itself. At the same time Obama will have another opportunity to paint Russia to the world as the aggressor."
Are the Olympic a factor can be used by the Americans ?
Mikhail Alexandrov: "Yes, I do not write this off. Although the Americans have already tried twice to use it. And even with some success in 2014. Since the overthrow of Yanukovych, on the eve of the Olympic Games in Sochi, was a surprise for virtually everyone."
"I said that Yanukovych may topple, but did not expect so quickly and firmly. At this time, our guide on the lookout, in "the Washington Regional Party" is understood."
Head of the Analytical Department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin: "In my opinion, the militant rhetoric of Kiev does not cost anything, Kiev regime from the very beginning of its existence, in general, is engaged primarily in two things: the rhetoric and propaganda."
Recently, however the West again increased the cries about the "Russian threat". What is the reason ?
Alexander Khramchikhin: "About the Russian threat, the Americans repeat this from 2008. And fundamental changes, I do not see here. Introduction of new units of NATO to Eastern Europe, from a military point of view, this is ridiculous. Just some of the NATO countries, in particular Poland and the Baltic states, are panicked in fear that Russia will attack them. It's a historically conditioned phobia, which has no basis today. But, nevertheless, NATO is bringing in as a "sacrifice" these miserable four battalions, as their presence in Eastern Europe is psychologically soothing to Poles and Balts. They are under this (erroneous) assumption that any US forces will intercede on behalf of them."
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