June 30, 2016 -
Yuri Kovalchuk, PolitNavigator -
Translated by J. Arnoldski
Yesterday’s UAF operation near Uglegorsk in the direction of Debaltsevo was a fairly successful reconnaissance mission for the enemy by means of battle. The military leadership of the self-proclaimed republics should soon draw necessary conclusions from the incident. The next blow by the Ukrainians could bear a more massive character and have far more serious consequences.
Blinking when the enemy is moving a sufficiently large number of units is costly. Of course, it is impossible to obtain precise information from military men, but by drawing upon information from disparate sources we can conclude that the NAF’s positions were attacked by a tank company supported by infantry and artillery. Why did no one know about this, and why did reinforcements come just at the moment when our solders were being driven back behind the first line of defense?
It is also unclear what exactly these lines of defense are if their garrison was pushed back 4km in an hour. When in winter of 2015 the UAF pulled out from Debaltsevo and Uglegorsk, they had built such fortifications that almost every strategic point had to be bombed for a day before throwing in assault troops. What prevented the NAF from digging in and building fortifications is unclear. After all, they’ve had more than a year.
However, it is very likely that the problem was an insufficient number of personnel in position or a lack of anti-tank weapons and sufficient ammunition. It must be a joke that the command is taking vitally important weapons from the front line and leaving only RPG-7’s and “Bumblebees” which can destroy armored vehicles only at a relatively close range.
As concerns personnel, the events of recent months have clearly shown that soldiers have nothing to do 40-50 km from the front line. Today, in the rear cities, an enormous number of servicemen is present which long ago should have been put at arm’s length from the front in order to avoid having to throw personnel into battle straight from trucks, which means large losses and disorder.
I’d also like to say a few words about the official version of emergency incident. When you hear reports that there are “no casualties,” there’s the impression that Tymchuk has crept here and bit everyone. Soldiers themselves, as well as medics close to them, are saying that there are losses, quite serious ones at that.
As for the losses of the enemy, they are “being counted.” There is no doubt that the UAF’s losses are also significant because a storming party, even with significant numerical superiority, always has large losses. But the whole point is that this is not important for the UAF, as to this day Kiev still possesses considerable superiority in numbers and equipment.
In the near future, we can expect new attempts at a breakthrough. Kiev has tried and realized that breaking the defense of the NAF is possible. Yesterday, the UAF did not have an intention of consolidating, but next time they could strike at a certain point and then dig in and thus create a dangerous, disturbing bulge like what happened near Yasinovataya.
It is time for the command of the 1st and 2nd corps to analyze the situation and urgently adopt the necessary measures to prevent further trouble.
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