Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ
27th February, 2016
Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, who failed not so long ago in voting for the resignation of the head of the government Arseniy Yatsenyuk, are going, apparently, to make a second attempt to "retire" the premiere. This time the replacement who is expected to take the candidacy is Oleksandr Turchynov. Five parties in the Parliament are ready to support the creature who is the current head of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, reports RIA "Novosti" with reference to the Ukrainian agency "Vesti".
Regarding the new choice of deputies, an anonymous source in the presidential administration of Poroshenko spoke to the agency. Absolutely categorically, he made it clear that "saving the Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is unlikely to succeed". And this is a rare case when the people and Parliament are united.
As was noted by the representative of the presidential administration, currently there are "consultations" on the candidacy for the post of head of the government. And Turchynov is allegedly the main contender for the Premiership. The parties BPP, "People's Front", "People's Will", "Radical party" and perhaps "Self-help" are ready to vote for him. Although among the potential candidates named are still the speaker of the Rada Volodymyr Groysman and Minister of Finance Natalia Yaresko. Mikhail Saakashvili, who is also tipped for the position, recently eliminated himself as a candidate, stating that his ambitions in Ukraine are higher than the post of head of government.
How likely is a new appointment? And Prime Minister Turchynov will be better than Prime Minister-Yatsenyuk, his "partner"who unleashed the "ATO" in Donbass?
"Actually, the talks about the possible appointment of Turchynov could be fake," — said the Deputy Director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belarusian Studies at the M.V. Lomonosov MSU, Bogdan Bezpalko. "But if it's confirmed, it is nothing amazing, in my opinion; Turchynov is one of the most anti-Russian candidates, and at the same time controls most Ukrainian politicians. His credo was always: "against Russia". And he's the one responsible for the outbreak of civil war in the Donbass. It was he who directed the Army against unarmed civilians.
I mean, this is the man who is smeared with blood. A staunch Russophobe. And, accordingly, the person who will perform all the quirks of the geopolitical external customer. Hence, probably, his possible appointment to the post of Prime Minister.
However, because of the replacement of Yatsenyuk with Turchynov absolutely nothing will change in Ukrainian politics. Apart from the signs — instead of "mad rabbit" it will be "bloody pastor".
"SP": Maybe Turchynov has a special managerial talent, and he knows how to pull the country out of deep economic hole?
"I think that he does not understand the economic issues. Yes, it is not necessary. If Turchynov, indeed, becomes Prime Minister, he will be a human-instrument. A human-knife. They will take advantage of it. Then, like Yatsenyuk, they will write off all negative consequences, And then discard him. Or insert a fresh cartridge.
All current policies in Ukraine fall into this category. Although there was such a character in Georgia, take the same Saakashvili..."
"SP": But Ukraine needs an anti-crisis manager...
"What for? International players, who now in the post-Soviet space play a game of chess, do not necessarily want to see Ukraine out of the crisis. They need to benefit. To be beneficiaries of this crisis. Ukraine itself, along with all 40-million "natives", with its economy, with all its army is seen as a tool. It is not a pity."
Why would they appoint the person who will somehow try to lead the country out of the crisis? If such a person in reality would come to power in Ukraine, say, to the post of Prime Minister, or as President, first of all, he will think about how to improve relations with Russia. How to develop mutually beneficial trade. How to ensure the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe. How to attract the best investors from Russia to the market of Ukrainian industry.
Americans would never let that happen. But they also don't want to invest, they aim to get everything for nothing."
"SP": They can arrange Turchynov as their candidate?
"I think any politician that will meet their goals and objectives will suit them. Simply put, interests. Will Poroshenko arrange this? It doesn't matter. Poroshenko himself is a deeply dependent figure."
Ex-Deputy of the Odessa City Council, politician Igor Dimitriev considers the head of the NSDC candidate to be more odious than the Prime Minister Yatsenyuk:
"All of them - Yatsenyuk, Avakov etc. — they are of one clique. Yes, Turchynov was directly involved in the beginning of the so-called "anti-terrorist operation". But, in fact, in Kiev they all tarred with the same brush. It is therefore not surprising that such a person may be at the head of the Cabinet.
The situation is such that, through any collusion among elites, it is necessary to have some combinations in the search for alternative figures, a search for a compromise on the candidate to remove Yatsenyuk, who brought all the corruption on himself. And after a recent controversial vote in the Rada, has only strengthened, pushing the party of Poroshenko finally away from the trough.
So they are ready for anything, to use any option to remove Yatsenyuk. Turchynov in this sense is a figure of compromise that suits everyone.
"SP": What exactly?
"Turchynov was never a leader; he was always on the sidelines. He's not as cunning and not as nosy as Yatsenyuk. And it's not Tymoshenko who will surely "bury" everyone if she'll sit again as PM. So the Parliament is ready for any vague, inconclusive person, at least to dismiss Yatsenyuk.
Whilst there are speeches about issues concerning the crisis, there will be new political and economical slogans. The idea is to keep the effects on the structure of the Cabinet before the upcoming privatization of Ukrainian enterprises and the possible privatization of the land. It is those assets that are still left, plus the loan that the IMF can provide."
"SP": Turchynov should provide this access?
"There is, in any case, this setup. Because it is believed that he is not as ambitious a politician as others. Although it seems to me that this time it is underestimated. Turchynov is a character who will disappoint the average Ukrainian, and those people who brought him to power. And the next wave of "betrayal" is awaiting for all of us.
Ukrainian political expert Victor Pirozhenko, in turn, does not believe in "passing the ball" to the head of the Council:
"Turchynov's candidacy hardly suits the West, and more specifically - the Americans. In the US, I think, they are fairly informed in detail about the identity of this man, and his 'deconsolidating' influence on the internal political processes in Ukraine. Because of these and several other reasons Americans do not perceive Turchynov.
Although all can fare. But presently it's merely bargaining. And we can't fully understand under what conditions Americans would agree to his candidacy. If the Premiership of Turchynov will help to avoid early parliamentary elections and, consequently, the destabilization involved, then the Americans on this candidate, in principle, can agree. They now have one dominant motive - to avoid political destabilization and early parliamentary elections in Ukraine.
"SP": But people need more confidence in the future. Looking for work, education and health... Turchynov is able to solve these problems?
"No, definitely. But for a long time already in Kiev, the factors of constructive, positive impact on the real economy... and so on were not taken into account. They are generally in last place. The first is the exchange of interests. And then, how will the candidate Turchynov meet the political interests of the leaders of the coalition. Maybe he will be convenient from the point of view of guarantees of access to gray schemes of financing."
"SP": Nothing will change?
"I think nothing."
"SP": As for Donbass? Turchynov is war? The secret transcript of the National Security Council on events in Crimea in February 2014 in this sense is very revealing.
"In terms of making decisions about renewal of hostilities, Turchynov solves nothing. But even here Poroshenko doesn't solve anything. Everything is decided in Washington and at the American Embassy. And Americans, apparently, still haven't given the 'green' light for this. So here it's likely they don't need Turchynov.
But I still think that he will not become Prime Minister because of his destructiveness, due to the fact that he will cause others to quarrel among themselves.
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