26 January, 2016
arslan.ayupoff for Sdelanounas.ru
Translated for Fort Russ by Soviet Bear
On September 30th, 2015 Russian aerospace forces launched an operation against ISIS (banned in Russia) in Syria. Since the beginning of the operation 100 days has passed. Let's try to sum up the first results of it [photos, map]
WHAT WAS BEFORE 30th SEPTEMBER?
Since August 2014, the aircraft of the US-led coalition (it has enlisted more than 60 countries, but only 5-6 countries actually participated in the bombing of the ISIS) conducted more than 6,5 thousands of air strikes. And here's their "efficiency": at the same time, ISIL has expanded its control over the territory of Syria from 30 to 70%. For this reason, the RuASF commander-in-chief Colonel-General Viktor Bondarev called such struggle against terrorists a sham in an interview with the newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda-Rostov-on-don"
WHAT HAS CHANGED AFTER SEPTEMBER 30th?
During these three months, the planes of the Russian aerospace forces (and the Russian Navy ships from the Caspian and Mediterranean seas) carried out about one and a half times more missile and bomb strikes against the terrorists than the American coalition for the year. We can already say for sure: Russia is leading the dance against ISIS and not the US. For 100 days Russia has destroyed more than 1,100 ISIS targets— depots, arsenals, factories, command and base stations, field camps. At the same time with support from our aircraft the Syrian army has managed to repel ISIS from almost 30% of previously captured territories (see map).
At the same time we and the whole world saw a new and real condition of our army — its high mobility and excellent professionalism of the personnel that utilizes the most advanced military technology in the air and at sea. Judging by the reactions of Western military experts, many of them were extremely wrong, calling the Russian army "old and declining". Some NATO staffs have already been saying that they need to "catch up" with Russia...
During these 100 days, revenues from the sale of smuggled oil to Turkey have decreased by more than 30%. Russian bombers destroyed such a number of the oil tanks, which total capacity could commensurate with the volume of weekly production of 3 major oil refineries. The Russian leadership has clearly said it is not going to send "infantry" to Syria. Therefore, the air operation may last for months to come, and possibly for a year.
ISIS field commanders are now forced to pay their fighters $ 200 a month instead of 500 — 1000. Many terrorists refuse to risk their lives for such a small amount of money and want to go back into their homes.
But the operation in Syria costs Russia 2 to 4 times less than to the USA (according to the American experts).
At the Russian base in Syria pilots enjoy great conditions of service.
The main intermediate political outcome of the Russian operation in Syria is not just that ISIL is receiving a good punch in the teeth, forcing them to curtail the scale of its "reign". There is another, equally important outcome: Russia managed to break the American scenario of "color revolutions" in Syria. The fate of President Bashar al-Assad will not be decided in Washington or the White house but by the Syrian people in the elections. And even the USA has agreed with that already.
|Photo: Aleksandr KOTS, Dmitriy STESHIN|
In addition, Russia has managed to convince part of the armed opposition in Syria (currently, there are about 7 thousand fighters) to forget about feuds with Assad and to fight a common enemy — ISIS together with its army.
And most importantly — for the first time after the collapse of the USSR Russia has shown that it is once again capable of leading a successful major military operation far away from its borders. And in this sense Russia is no longer a regional power but the new global geopolitical player. Thus people of almost all civilized countries look at Russia's actions in Syria, not only with sympathy but also with hope. Many have realized that without Moscow all efforts to restore order in the Middle East will be in vain.
It is already clear to everyone — a quick blitzkrieg in Syria will not work. For this we need boots on the ground. But the Russian leadership clearly says it is not going to send "infantry" to Syria. Therefore, the air operation may last for months and possibly a year or two. And if it continues in the same vein, the day when the war in Syria will go into political negotiations with the Assad opposition about the new arrangement of the country is inevitable. But Assad would no longer be a "whipping boy" for the west, Syria will remain a United country, and the remnants of ISIS will flee. In fact, Russia will save the world from the "black plague" of the XXI century, as in 1945 Russia rescued it from the "brown plague".