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    April 20, 2015

    Why the Ukrainian army is doomed to defeat




    April 20, 2015




    By Vladimir Lepekhin



    Translated from Russian by J.Hawk



    Not even the most modern weapons, nor the toughest military instructors will ensure the UAF’s victory over the Novorossia militia. The UAF is doomed to defeat, according to Vladimir Lepekhin.



    DPR MOD representatives announced there were 59 ceasefire violations over the last 24 hours by the UAF. Such systematic violations take place not only on the Donetsk sector, but the Lugansk one as well.



    That’s the background for the arrival of 300 US paratroopers “to train three National Guard battalions”. There were announcements that Canada was going to send 200 of its troops to Kiev, and there are already 800 legally employed Americans and 75 British citizens, plus several hundred (illegal) foreign military mercenaries.



    We know the purpose of this foreign legion in Ukraine. But what is the junta hoping for? For victory over the independent Novorossia or only for maintaining power with the help of US and British bayonets?



    The UAF: where its power resides



    The main source of power of the Ukrainian military machine, which includes the army, the National Guard, volunteer battalions, foreign mercenaries and other militarized structures and subunits, is in its reliance on wide array of means of waging war in pursuit of “Ukrainianness”.



    This machine is based on lies, cruelty, direct terror, the use of forbidden weapons (I think that if the regime had nuclear weapons it would have used them by now), and the lowest imaginable methods of warmaking, such as the destruction of the civilian population, hostage-taking, torture, and the murder of prisoners of war and opponents.



    This machine is not intended to fulfill the Minsk agreement or any other agreement. It is not especially subordinate to the political leadership, but instead is purposed for, to some extent or another, the destruction of everything that does not fit into the “one state—one nation—one idea” conception.



    The power of the Ukrainian military machine also resides in the fact that it is backed by the entire “civilized world” which is rendering Kiev moral, political, financial, military, and legal support. The West had, for all intents and purposes, issued Kiev a license to commit all imaginable crimes, including the rocket artillery bombardment of civilian housing on the Donbass, the killing of journalists and politicians in Kiev itself.



    The West deployed the world press in support of the junta, which managed to convince even many Russians living in Ukraine in the necessity of “liberating” Ukraine from “separatists” and Russian occupiers. It is trying to strangle Russia, which insists that Kiev stop the war against its own people, with sanctions, media appearances, and direct threats, all the while saturating Ukraine with military specialists, secret service agents, and modern weapons.



    Thanks to the intensive militarization, Kiev increased the size of its militarized formations to ove 200 thousand troops. This is ten times more than the Donbass militia has.



    Unlike the militia, which is struggling to survive due to the shortage of food, medicine, and other basics, the Ukrainian military machine is backed by the entire state apparatus and the oligarchs with their honoraria for every “Russian saboteur” killed. The Kiev “party of war” is driven by a maniacal urge to not merely win in the war it started, but to destroy everyone who is against it or even has doubts in the success of “Ukrainianness.”



    But no weapons, no instructors, no money, no terror, no lie by Western media will ensure Kiev victory over Novorossia. Even if the UAF were to grow to a million soldiers and be equipped with the most modern weapons, the UAF would not be able to break the resistance of the South-East. This monster, stuffed to the gills with the steroid of war, is doomed to ineffectiveness, defeat, and shame.



    The Weak Spots of the UAF



    In spite of the significant resources and capabilities, and Russia’s detached stance, due to its unwillingness to escalate the civil war in Ukraine, the Kiev regime cannot turn the situation on the Donbass to its advantage. The reason for that is the weak spots which considerably outweigh the UAF’s strengths.



    The main weakness is the absence, both in the army and the country, of true leaders for whom one might be seriously willing to die. Marauding in the ATO zone is one thing, but dying for the oligarch Poroshenko and other “leaders” of contemporary Ukraine is something else altogether.



    Also the national heroes of the new Ukraine are not quite commensurate to the scale of the undertaking: who, other than complete degenerates, would want to fight for Bandera’s and Shuchevych’s ideals?



    The contemporary—Banderist—Ukraine does not have true heroic and glorious history. The Kiev regime cut itself off from the great victory of the Soviet people over the fascists, but once you do that, what are the values that are to animate the new Ukrainian army? The Nazi traditions and genocidal experience of the OUN-UPA?



    The lack of leaders, heroes, and history damages the Kiev regime’s ideology. The Ukrainian journalist Andrey Badzhra noted in his article “The Foundations of Nationally Conscious Ukrainianism” that the Kiev junta ideology consists of three key components—“implacable Russophobia, an emphasis on total Ukrainianization of everything Russian, and the replacement of the Russian civilizational code in order to transform Ukraine into a European state (eurointegration)”. Therefore “the victory of nationally conscious Ukrainianism launched Ukrainianization which, at its core, represents forcible primitivization, the degradation of the population which is abruptly deprived of its culture, economy, and the most basic blessings of civilization.”



    This makes Ukrainianization the source and basis for the civil war within the current borders of Ukraine, war which will end either with the full destruction of the Russian element or the partition of Ukraine. The Russian element understands this perfectly well, and therefore it is ready for struggle until victory.



    Incidentally, the lack of ideology is half the trouble. What’s even more troubling is the lack of faith among the faithful. There is fanatism, but there is no faith. Their God is ill-defined and doubtful, and his representative, the schismatic Filaret Denisenko, bears little similarity to a holy person.



    Incidentally, the scientologist and quasi-catholic Yatsenyuk has his own idol, the Baptist Turchinov his own, and the oligarchs Poroshenko, Kolomoysky, Avakov, and others are worshipping Mamon.



    The absence of pure faith is one of the reasons the nationally conscious Ukrainians don’t have the Truth. And once there is no Truth, there will be no Spirit either, and the Sprit is the basis of Victory. Novorossia has the Spirit. Right now this is the main weapon of the DPR-LPR.



    The Real Reasons for Ukraine’s Militarization



    Western analysts who poorly understand the Russian Spirit nevertheless have some notion that the UAF is incapable of scoring a victory on the Donbass. Thus Sogdiane group analyst Chrristine Duguane-Kleiman writes “the situation in the UAF is close to catastrophic…It has no skills, not capabilities to control the situation which had arisen in the country. Moreover, much of its headquarters is wholly unsuited to the task of conducting combat operations.”



    Hence the explanation that the US are sending their instructors not in order to escalate the conflict in the South-East. They will no doubt attempt to prolong the war in Ukraine, but out of the principle that “the longer the war lasts, the better.”



    The US military’s objective in Ukraine strikes me as follows: to ensure US control over its territory and its gradual “digesting” by US firms. The West could not care less about Ukraine’s national consciousness, it is interested solely in profits.



    As to Kiev, it does not need the country’s total militarization in order to fight the Donbass or Russia, but to maintain power. Especially since, as LPR-DPR representatives assert, the UAF does not control the volunteer battalions and will not be able to wholly control them in the upcoming years.



    J.Hawk’s Comment: There is much to be said for this analysis. Ukraine still has a great deal of military equipment at its disposal, enough for a cauldron or two. But one has to choose one’s ideology wisely, and on that score the junta is sorely wanting. The one aspect of the Ukrainian nationalism as an ideology that the author missed is that it’s the ideology of…the losing side. Everyone who’s ever adopted it, lost. They did not merely lose badly, they lost ugly, and made the ideology appear even more despicable and monstrous than it was before. One would have thought that after OUN-UPA the ideology was sufficiently discredited that no sane person would ever try to run it up the flagpole. Alas, no. Ukrainian nationalism is a lot like Al Qaeda’s ideology—attractive because it never was implemented as the ruling ideology of an internationally state, and therefore even the defeat of OUN-UPA, and its many atrocities were not enough to discourage the future generations. But hopefully Poroshenko & Co. will at long last finish it off for good.
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