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    March 23, 2015

    “Putin broke his teeth on Dnepropetrovsk, Poroshenko will break them too."--Kolomoysky raises stakes

     "The wiseguys are grasping at power"--Filatov, Kolomoysky, Korban

    By Yurasumy

    Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

    That in which my detractors did not believe even yesterday had happened. The Junta finally splintered into two camps. Kolomoysky went all out. Poroshenko accepted the challenge. Today was filled with events and announcements.

    1. Nalivaychenko accused Kolomoysky’s entourage of being a party to the murder of an SBU captain.

    2. Poroshenko gave orders to disarm all armed individuals in and around Ukrnafta HQ.

    3. Poroshenko furthermore announced that the “territorial defense will be strictly subordinated to the military chain of command and no governor will have pocket UAF at his disposal.”

    4. In response to all that four Poroshenko Block deputies (Korban, Oliynik, Filatov, Denisenko) left the faction and made the following statement:

    “Poroshenko decided to implement one of the provisions of the secret protocol of the Minsk Agreement. It includes a provision for the destruction of the Right Sector.”

    “I hope it isn’t so. But we have our doubts, on the basis of his reactions and the persecution,” Deputy Governor of Dnepropetrovsk Region Gennadiy Korban added, underscoring that “eight criminal cases have been launched against him, and not a single one against the Opposition Block.”

    “Putin broke his teeth on Dnepropetrovsk, Poroshenko will break them too. I am leaving the party. We are calling everyone to a national assembly on Wednesday at 18:00 at the Heroes of the Maidan Square. Poroshenko has no connection to the Dignity Revolution. He is afraid of the Third Maidan, but in reality the second revolution has not run its course yet.”

    5. Kolomoysky’s advisor Kupriy published a full list of grievances against Poroshenko [to make long story short, Poroshenko stands accused of killing people on the Donbass and stealing billions—all of which is no doubt true, ironically enough.—J.Hawk]

    The Kiev junta has been moving toward a schism for a long time. At the end of last year the US barely managed to maintain Maidan’s unity. But today even they proved helpless (or possibly they are managing junta’s removal process).

    The question of unity of authority is relevant to any form of governance, be it the junta, be it LPR and DPR. The latter two solved the problem during the fall. For the most part successfully though problems remain. Now it’s Poroshenko’s turn.

    Kolomoysky, who turned out to be the third wheel in the junta, doesn’t want to simply leave. He has the entire state apparatus against himself. But it’s not quite the same apparatus that existed a year ago. Moreover, Poroshenko’s popularity is moving toward zero. The people are fed up with the war and everything that’s connected with it (death, poverty, the absence of a future). The army is fed up with constant betrayals, which they blame on senior military commanders loyal to the president. This means Kolomoysky has a chance. His assets include the Right Sector and other “volunteers,” for whom Kiev has other plans in store, and PrivatBank which could devastate Ukraine’s finances.

    In any event, the gauntlet has been thrown. All coups operate by their own laws. Kolomoysky can’t pull his punches. Anyone who shows a sign of weakness will be swept out of the way and crushed. The upcoming days will show who was better prepared for this clash.

    P.S. This clash could have taken place in November, December, February, but it was delayed every time by the puppet masters. But it seems the time has come at last.

    P.P.S. Pledges of fealty will be an important indicator of victory and defeat. So far everyone is waiting, afraid to stick their neck out by betting on one or the other side, which means the situation is unpredictable. Kolomoysky needs to raise the stakes and be half a step ahead. Otherwise he will lose. All Poroshenko has to do to win is to deflect his adversary’s moves in the next few days.

    P.P.P.S. It’s notable that Kolomoysky and his court launched wholly socialist slogans concerning nationalization of unlawfully privatized property.

    J.Hawk’s Comment: There are a couple of things missing from the analysis, namely:

    1. Poroshenko could simply (?) remove Kolomoysky from his post as governor. Since Poroshenko appointed Kolomoysky in the first place, now that Kolomoysky has...disappointed...he can be...un-appointed. Or can he???

    2. The National Guard web site briefly posted an announcement that two battalions were being moved to Dnepropetrovsk, presumably to take the region under Poroshenko’s control. The statement concerning chain of command which Yurasumy references above appeared later—after the original announcement of two battalions deploying to Dnepropetrovsk magically vanished from the site. Did the National Guard refuse to follow Poroshenko’s orders??? This might be why Poroshenko has not cancelled Kolomoysky’s governorship—if he did, and was ignored, that would be a tremendous loss of prestige for the president.

    Also, I disagree that Kolomoysky needs to stay a step ahead of Poroshenko. Poroshenko is the president—he can’t possibly tolerate the sort of statements that Kolomoysky’s deputies are making which are a veritable incitement to overthrowing the government. It’s also telling that Filatov, Korban, and the rest did not jump ship and joined Poroshenko before things got out of control. Filatov, for his part, feigned ignorance when asked about the goings-on at Ukrnafta, which suggests he was still on the fence only yesterday. But something persuaded him to side with Kolomoysky and against Poroshenko.
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