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    December 18, 2014

    How Putin's Press Conference Affected The Dollar-Ruble Exchange Rate

    Marina Yudenich - Live Journal

    Yes, I understand that the exchange rate does not depend on the words of the Guarantor literally by the minute (although some argue that it does), but let's play this fun game - check the algebra with harmony

    So, here's the graph of the fluctuations during the press conference.

    12.00 - Everyone in anticipation of a harsh scenario ( eavesdroppers who like to eaves drop from 'under the carpet' claimed that there was such an option, while those who stand 'on the carpet' know VVP [Putin] very well argued that there wasn't and could not be one, because it's not his style at all), therefore - the bottom line.

    - On general figures and the statement that the crisis could last two years +1

    - The statement that the Central Bank and the government are doing the right thing +1

    - A list of specific measures aimed at stabilizing -1

    - The thesis that Europe is not our friend, and has never been one, but we always met it half way + 2.5

    - The question about Ukraine, in the framework of VV response rather vaugly mentioning the Minsk agreement, mentioning Poroshenko in a positive light +2 (maximum high)

    - Crimea has nothing to do with it. A story about a bear - 2

    - Novorossia. Did help and will continue to help - 1

    - Pivot to the East, the contract with Turkey, profitable partnership with China, jobs in the Far East -1

    - Currency speculation, as a market mechanism +1

    - Healthcare reform in Moscow

    - Fifth column

    - Khodorkovsky

    - Chechnya

    - That the "fifth column" exists and its representatives should learn to live in a society that does not agree with them -1

    - About the impossibility of a coup -1

    - Amnesty for capital -1


    (Numbers were rounded)

    Afterwords everything is more or less even with minor fluctuations

    Conclusion:

    (Not aspiring to be academic and absolutely accurate.)

    The market (in this case, currency), as people, craves firmness, consistency and specificity from the Guarantor.

    It immediately and acutely reacts to any attempts to mitigate the situation where in reality, this mitigation is not observed and is impossible by definition, it does not allow to take steps back (albeit accurate), welcomes the "pivot to the East" and has a negative reaction to any attempt of opening to the West, it does not favor the Central Bank and the government, and would like to see tighter control over the activities of both from the Guarantor.

    The market simply ignored Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the pink blouse of Sobchak and the suffering of the "fifth column."

    Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com
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